THE Russian Federation is the only country in the world that has recognized the def-facto Taliban regime in July 2025. Subsequently, it removed the Afghan Taliban from its list of proscribed terrorist organizations. Russia’s sole recognition does not secure international legitimacy for the regime, but its military-technical cooperation agreement, signed on May 27, 2026, will have ramifications for Afghanistan’s neighbouring states. The security observers are debating military-technical cooperation agreement keeping in mind, transnational terrorist syndicates’ sanctuaries located in Afghanistan, regional strategic environment, great powers increasing focus on Afghanistan and increasing insecurity of the neighbouring countries due to Taliban’s patronage of terrorist organizations. Though the Agreement details are classified, yet increasing defense ties between Moscow and Kabul have fuelled speculations. It was reported that the agreement was signed to repair, maintain and modernize the Soviet-era and Russian-made weapons, such as Mi-17 helicopters, currently in the custody of the Afghan Taliban.
Presently, Russia and the Taliban have a convergence of interests to eliminate Islamic State Khorasan (ISKP), which threatens Russia’s internal security and poses a challenge to the Taliban in Afghanistan. Besides, Russia, like other neighbours of Afghanistan, desires to end the flow of narcotics across the region. Are the Afghan Taliban capable of containing the ISKP operations from Afghanistan and stopping the flow of narcotics from Afghanistan? In reality, neither the Afghan Taliban has the will nor capacity to eliminate the sanctuaries of terrorist groups in Afghanistan and stop the production and export of narcotics from Afghanistan.
Russia has limitations in assisting Kabul politically, militarily and economically. Its entanglement in the protracted war with Ukraine has severely curtailed its role in the regional and international politics. Nevertheless, it had drawn attention towards the Trans-Afghan Railway, also referred to as the Kabul Corridor, which was formally introduced at the international conference “Central Asia in the system of international transport corridors: strategic prospects and unrealized opportunities” in 2018. Kazakhstan, Russia, Pakistan and Uzbekistan signed a protocol to form a joint working group and financing consortium. In February 2021, Uzbekistan, Afghanistan and Pakistan agreed on the roadmap for the Termez–Mazar-i-Sharif–Kabul–Peshawar route. During a Kazan business forum in May 2025, Russia announced that it would develop railway routes through Afghanistan, connecting to Pakistan and India to bypass Western-controlled trade routes, which are currently under sanctions. Despite these commitments, the Kabul Corridor is undeveloped due to Afghanistan’s internal instability, terrorist groups’ sanctuaries and enmity with Pakistan.
Russia’s military assistance to de-facto Taliban government would have devastating security repercussions for the neighbouring states of Afghanistan, particularly Pakistan. The Afghan Taliban are justifying this military cooperation with Russia by citing their strained relations and sporadic armed conflict with Pakistan. Taliban de-facto regime’s Defense Minister, Mullah Yaqoob, opined that Moscow’s recent defence-related talks were a counter-response to the Pakistani air strikes inside Afghanistan. He said that Islamabad would “soon no longer dare” to attack Afghan territory due to the military-technical cooperation agreement with Russia. It’s an open secret that the Russian weapons, if transferred to Afghanistan, will end up in the hands of terrorists. Moreover, the defense talks can draw President Donald Trump’s attention to Afghanistan and he may take practical steps to secure control of the Bagram base. Thus, it draws the country further into regional and global geopolitical competition instead of emerging as a transit hub linking Central Asia to the Indian Ocean.
After exhausting all kinds of non-kinetic means to dissuade the Afghan Taliban from assisting Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), Hafiz Gulbahadar group and Jamaat-ul-Ahrar, Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) Majeed Brigade, Daesh, Al Qaeda, etc, Pakistan has launched Operation Ghazb-Lil-Haq (Righteous Fury) on February 26, 2026. Pakistan’s intention to strike inside Afghanistan (terrorist facilities in Kabul, Kandahar, Paktia and Nangarhar) from the beginning was clear: conduct precise punitive strikes on terrorist facilities, demonstrate capability and avoid unnecessary escalation. Pakistan Air Force was able to do that because it had a better intelligence network and superior situational awareness. It knew what it had to target, what effect it would create and how many strikes would neutralize terrorist targets. The calibrated surgical strikes decreased the terrorist activities in the country.
To conclude, the neighbours of Afghanistan are frustrated over the failure of the de-facto Taliban government in Kabul to prevent the Afghan territory from serving as a sanctuary for internationally banned transnational terrorist organizations. These terrorist organizations conduct terrorism in the neighbouring states with impunity. Thus, the consolidation of military ties between the de-facto Taliban government and Russia further emboldens the former and they continue their militant attitude towards the neighbouring states.
—The writer is Vice Chancellor of the Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad.
