Strategic fallout of Pak triumph over India

 

RECENTLY, the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission (USCC) submitted its report to the US Congress, validating and highlighting Pakistan’s victory over India during the May -2025 war, endorsing its stance on the Pakistan military‘s professional supremacy over India’s. This crucial reporting on Pakistan‘s historical victory against India, despite Indian lobby’s last-ditch effort to halt it, is a glaring manifestation of the truth that underscores Pakistan military‘s rising global image and role. Objectively discerning, the Congressional report has far-reaching strategic implications, especially for India’s belligerent leadership to reassess its regional policies, abandon unrealistic war narratives and denial and engage in dialogue with Pakistan.

There can be no denying the fact that the Pakistan military is widely recognized for its extraordinary professional capabilities, setting it apart from other militaries globally. A US Congressional report has systematically verified this belief. The report specifically highlights the outcome of four-day war between India and Pakistan, attributing the Pakistan military victory to its exemplary professionalism.

Needless to say, the Congress’ acknowledgment underscores the global recognition of Pakistan military prowess and resilience. The report analysis could lead to five major aspects. Firstly, Pakistan achieved a decisive victory over India, with its Air Force downing several Indian aircraft, including 4 French-made Rafale jets. Secondly, Pakistan’s use of advanced Chinese weaponry, such as the HQ-9 Air defense system and PL-15 air to air missiles, particularly, the PAF’s skillful use of China’s J-10C fighter aircraft, playing a crucial role in the conflict. Thirdly, the conflict showcased China’s military technology, strengthening Pak-China military cooperation. Fourthly, consequent upon the report’s revelation, Pakistan’s heroic performance has damaged India’s global reputation while uplifting Pakistan’s global military image. And finally, the report indicates the conflict and its outcome may have profound implications for regional power dynamics and potentially influenced strategic alliances, reshaping the global strategic tapestry.

From the Pakistani perspective, the report analysis could cast potential beneficial repercussions: 1- the skilful use of Chinese technology by the Pak military signifies its par excellence capabilities. 2- It enhances and expands Pakistan ‘diplomatic clout while deepening Pakistan’s bilateral relations with many European, Central Asian and Middle Eastern countries. 3- With a growing military image globally, Islamabad is well- positioned to negotiate and recalibrate its defence partnership, helping it to advance its national interests, attract investment and develop trade and technology partnerships with other countries. 4- In juxtaposition of the US-India Defence cooperation, the report revitalizes the scope of China-Pakistan defence cooperation as recently China is selling its advanced military equipment to Pakistan, including 40 J-35, KJ-500 surveillance aircraft. 5- Needless to say, the report’s findings have contradicted Indian claims and narratives about the conflict, embarrassing India while helping Pakistan to counter Indian claims in international forums. 6- It enhances Pak-US counter-terrorism cooperation.

Moreover, observers’ foremost concern during the India-Pakistan conflict has been the possible escalation up to or across the nuclear threshold. This scenario prompted President Trump to intervene and halt the war that could have caused a nuclear catastrophe in the region. Thanks to Pak military leadership that it adopted a policy of nuclear restraint. As per the report, India admitted that Pakistan had targeted its 109 military sites.

Though generally perceived from the Chinese perspective, the report posits a polarized view, particularly when it says that China used this conflict as an opportunity to test the reliability of its weaponry. Yet, the report’s emphasis on the successes and effectiveness of modern, integrated Chinese technology during the conflict, serves as a strong selling point for China’s defence industry. Furthermore, the report holds that India’s French-made Rafale jets and Russian-made S-400 air defence systems underperformed against the Chinese-supplied equipment, leading to potential reputational damage for Western and Russian defence industries, recently endorsed by Indonesia’s canceling plans to purchase Rafale jets.

Meanwhile, the report’s post-truth profoundly suggests that Indian political and military leadership must confront the hard realities of their self-deceiving war myth in South Asia. Resuscitating from its state of oblivion, the Indian Government must acknowledge that any future military conflict with Pakistan will be catastrophic for India, leading to further humiliation. The truth upholds that today Pakistan military commands global respect with regard to its dynamic professional efficiencies– in terms of operational readiness, tactical flexibility, effective use of technology, integrated command and control (C2)— which are crucially supported by military doctrines: Full Spectrum Deterrence (FSD) and quid pro quo plus.

Additionally, it seems evident that with the new command in place and the activation of the Office of the Commander of the Defence Forces (CDF), to be assumed by Field Marshal General Syed Asim Munir, on November 27, Pakistan’s military will further emerge as one of the most formidable militaries in the world. Make no mistake, India’s strategy to engage Pakistan on two fronts – eastern and western – could backfire, potentially escalating the conflict into an uncontrolled nuclear war trajectory, risking escalation to the use of tactical nuclear weapon (TNWs) and risking increasing civil casualties while fatally damaging the economies of both nations.

The ground realities suggest that the Indian leadership should work towards a more balanced approach while making actual understanding of the region’s security dynamics where three nuclear power states (China, India and Pakistan) are closely located. But sadly, India’s war calculations are always self-contradictory and hallucinatory, as, by overestimating its relations with Israel, India is underestimating the strength of Pak- China strategic nexus and Pak-US friendship.

Nonetheless, today, the BJP’s policy of sponsoring terrorist proxies and promoting regional instability necessitates a revisionist policy approach, applying Vajpayee’s reconciliatory stance towards Pakistan. By adopting a restraint strategy and moving away from the narrative of denial towards dialogue, Indian leadership can pragmatically contribute to a more informed public discourse and potentially create opportunities for conflict resolution and cooperation in South Asia.

—The writer, based in Pakistan, an independent IR & International Law analyst, also an expert in Conflict and Peace Studies (with special focus on Palestine, Kashmir), is member of European Consortium of Political Research (ECPR), including the Washington Foreign Law Society/American Society of International Law.

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