THE Iran America Israel war goes on in full ferocity and without any sign of abatement and is now in its seventh week.
The American objectives of the war are regime change in Iran, denuclearisation of Iran and an end to Iranian missile capabilities. In spite of relentless bombings none of the objectives have been achieved so far and now there are reports of American boots on the ground to achieve their war aims which in itself is a frightening prospect and a very risky proposition. Iran has very effectively sealed off the Strait of Hormuz through which almost one fifth of the world’s oil supply flows out to the world community especially the Asian countries and now the main war objective of the US is to reopen the strait of Hormuz and allow ships of all nations safe passage through the strait so that the community of nations can breadth easy again.
So far Iran has announced its willingness to allow passage to ships of friendly countries only when now over 700 vessels mainly oil tankers are stuck on both sides of the waterway. Pakistan now is navigating a difficult diplomatic tightrope and trying to broker a deal between the USA and Iran with a high level conclave in Islamabad to come to some terms for ending the conflict. America too is now desperate to find some form of safe exit from the war because this war now seems to be spinning out of control of the Trump regime and American prestige and global standing is under severe threats. In Tehran the lower tier leadership of the revolutionary guards seems to be in control while Pakistan has not taken any sides in the conflict Islamabad seems to be a logical choice for Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner to lead the American delegation for parleys with the Iranian side. The strait of Hormuz Lies between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. The Persian side is the main passage through which all the ships pass as the Oman side of the waterway is too shallow for large ships and oil tankers. The Iranian side is almost 2250 KMs long and is heavily protected by the Iranian navy with their armada of speed boats, anti-ship vessels, drones and ballistic missiles batteries along the shoreline. The Southern part is called Musandam Peninsula and is jointly controlled by the UAE and Oman Iran is in full controls of the Northern and Eastern parts of this passage through which 20% of the world’s oil and 25% of gas flows along with vital supplies to the gulf countries like food and agricultural products.
The Strait is about 167 KMs in length and 34 to 97 KMs in width. This passage carries oil on huge tankers belonging to Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait and Qatar that travel to Europe and Asia and almost 80% of the crude oil about 21 million barrels goes to China, Japan India and South Korea and the closure of the straits has a major impact on Asia and Europe but hardly any on the USA. To navigate the Strait, ships pass through the territorial waters of Iran and Oman, ‘desirably’ under the UN Convention on Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), not ratified by Iran.
Since 1959, after Iran expanded its territorial sea to 22 km, Hormuz has been virtually Iranian territory. Since 1993, Iranian maritime law requires warships, submarines and nuclear-powered ships to obtain prior permission before passage through Iran’s territorial waters. Oman, the other littoral state, ratified UNCLOS in 1989, but also requires ‘innocent passage’ and prior permission for foreign warships. The US does not recognize Iranian and Omani claims.
Since 1993, Iranian maritime law requires warships, submarines and nuclear-powered ships to obtain prior permission before passage through Iran’s territorial waters. Oman, the other littoral state, ratified UNCLOS in 1989, but also requires ‘innocent passage’ and prior permission for foreign warships. The US does not recognise Iranian and Omani claims.
The closure of the strait has already impacted the lives of most people in Asia Govt. employees have been asked to work from home Schools and universities are now conducting online classes, work week has been reduced to four days only. South Sudan and Mauritius have restricted electricity consumption and in Europe Slovenia became the first EU member state tom introduce Fuel rationing. So far the USA has not made any serious efforts to open the Strait of Hormuz they have not deployed any naval vessels in the Strait and restricted their offensive on Iran to air attacks on land targets and the Iranian navy. Donald Trump appealed to the European countries and China to help him in opening the strait but he got a cold shoulder from the countries he appealed to including old allies like the UK after which he announced that the US did not need any help from other countries.
In the late 1980s, during the eight-year Iran-Iraq war, strikes on oil facilities escalated into a “tanker war” that saw both countries attacking neutral ships to exert economic pressure. Kuwaiti tankers carrying Iraqi oil were especially vulnerable. Eventually, American warships began escorting them through the Gulf in what became one of the largest naval surface warfare operations since World War Two, according to the US Naval Institute.
—The writer is Professor of History, based in Islamabad
