Saber-rattling and talks

 

PAKISTANI civil and military leaders have worked to bring the US and Iran back to negotiations. They hope to address the international economic crisis and turn the current ceasefire into a lasting agreement. However, the standoff persists. Both sides remain uncompromising and unwilling to make concessions. As a result, the anticipated second round of dialogue did not occur, despite preparations in Islamabad.

The optimism about a constructive outcome to the ongoing talks between Iran and the US was dashed after President Donald Trump cancelled a planned visit by his envoys, Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff, to Pakistan on April 25, 2026, to meet with Iranian officials. Subsequently, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi also left Islamabad for Muscat.

Although the stalemate continues, both sides refrain from using kinetic force to advance their objectives, signaling a potential de-escalation of the conflict. This development provides relief broadly, except for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the primary perpetrator of the war between Iran and the United States. It also suggests that behind-the-scenes negotiations, facilitated by Pakistan between Iran and the United States, are ongoing.

After deploying massive firepower against Iran for 39 days, the US has employed the indirect strategy of a naval blockade of Iranian ports to economically cripple Iran. Indeed, a naval blockade creates economic problems for Iran, but it is equally disturbing to the United States’ allies. In this economically interdependent world, the longevity of the blockade would harm US economic interests as well. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20 percent of the world’s oil consumption flows, is destabilizing the world’s economy. Hence, it has become a focal point of global anxiety and everyone is demanding that it go back to the international waterway.

Pakistan has been facilitating and mediating between Iran and the US in a smart way. One of the decisive factors in mediation is the mediator’s credibility, enabling the two parties to trust the mediator. So, Pakistani leadership is facilitating and mediating and carefully avoiding being labeled as pursuing the agenda of either side. It successfully maintains and coordinates communication between the adversaries. A critical examination of the situation reveals that President Trump and the Iranian leadership have great trust in the Pakistani leadership. Both sides praise the deft diplomacy of Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar, Chief of the Defense Staff (CDS) and Chief of Army Staff (COAS) Syed Asim Munir, and brilliant officers of the Pakistan Foreign Service. Last Sunday, President Trump, in an interview on Fox News, said, “Great respect for Pakistan, but I will, because they’ve been terrific. They’ve really tried, and they’ll stay involved.”

Saber-rattling and closed-door talks are happening simultaneously. President Trump is threatening a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and potential military strikes, while Iranian officials vow to resist pressure. Senior Iranian Advisor, Mohsen Razai threatened to “smash and shatter” American power, warning of the consequences of ongoing US pressure. Admittedly, a bit of saber-rattling can be useful in foreign policy; however, the current volatile situation in the Middle East demands a pause in saber-rattling and a greater focus on the success of the negotiations by adopting a flexible approach to compromise on maximalist positions.

There is no unauthorized disclosure of the discussion. The Americans, Iranians and Pakistanis are aware of the fact that the leakage of premature information could jeopardize the dialogue process. Despite the strict confidentiality of the dialogue process, the broad contours of the final deal are visible. The final agreement remains uncertain because President Trump and his Iranian counterpart share the same instinct, i.e., never yield to pressure. Hence, both sides’ stubbornness makes the negotiation process very complicated. Importantly, neither side is adverse to the negotiations. On April 26, President Trump said, “If they want to talk, they can come to us, or they can call us. You know, there is a telephone. We have nice, secure lines, but we’re not sending people to travel 18 hours to meet.” A similar positive inclination for the negotiations to resolve the conflict has been maintained by the Iranian leadership.

To conclude, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is an outcome of the Israel-US aggression against Iran. It is not the cause of the war. Therefore, the end of the war automatically opened the Strait. But Iran’s insistence for uranium enrichment for peaceful purposes continues to be a stumbling block.

—The writer is Prof at the School of Politics and IR, Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad.

([email protected])

 

Get Alerts