ON the face of it, a paradoxical relationship seems to be emerging from the recent engagement between Russia and Taliban controlled Afghanistan. On the one hand, like most of Afghanistan’s neighbors, Russia also has serious concerns about the presence of militant and terrorist organizations in Afghanistan and the help that they are receiving from the Taliban regime. But on the other hand, Russia has recently received Afghan Defense Minister Mullah Yaqub in Moscow, culminating in agreements for military and technical cooperation. The increased cooperation in defence and security raises a critical strategic question: why cooperate with a regime that presides over a country that has become a hub for terrorist outfits of various hues? Some of these deadly groups operating from Afghanistan include the TTP, IS-K, Al-Qaida, the Eastern Turkistan Islamic Movement (ETIM) and the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU). According to the Russian Federation Security Service (FSB), terrorist organizations based in Afghanistan, such as IS-K, are recruiting from the Central Asian States as well as Russian migrant communities. These terrorist organizations have also developed financial channels across the Commonwealth of Independent States, thus posing a direct threat to Russia’s national security.
The Taliban’s record further amplifies these concerns. Estimates suggest that between 5000 – 7000 TTP militants, alongside 2000 – 3000 IS-K fighters operate from Afghan soil. These extremist actors operate in the regional geopolitical space including Russia. Russia’s willingness to engage in military cooperation with Afghanistan raises serious doubt about its risk assessment and longtime strategic intent. The Taliban inherited vast stockpiles of high-grade weapons, when the US and NATO forces withdrew in 2021. Since then, concerns have persisted regarding the proliferation of these weapons to the militant network operation in the whole region. Documented international reports have confirmed the presence of these weapons in the possession of militant outfits operating outside Afghanistan.
In entering into a defense cooperation agreement with Taliban controlled Afghanistan, Moscow risks contributing towards strengthening these militant outfits operating out of Afghanistan with impunity. These outfits are also benefited by transfer of approximately $40 million from the US on a weekly basis. These funds are essentially meant for humanitarian aid. But indirectly these funds are very likely to partially get into the hands of the terrorist groups based in Afghanistan. Afghanistan’s instability has caused major regional consequences. Pakistan suffered over 600 terrorist attacks originating from Afghan soil in 2025 alone. Central Asian States, including Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, have also expressed growing concerns about border security and spillover of extremism. Russia itself is not immune. IS–K is making recruitment efforts not only in the Central Asia States but the migrant communities of Russia also. The fact underscores the trans-national nature of the threat. China, too, has faced security challenges from Xinjiang related groups such as ETIM.
Against this background, Moscow’s engagement with the Afghan Taliban appears to be driven by a sort of strategic calculation. Russia views the Taliban as a potential counterbalance against Western influence and an actor in regional stability. Russia maintained contacts with the Taliban even during its years of insurgency against the US. Today the relationship is evolving into a more formalized partnership. It has to be remembered that Russia is the only state that has formally granted Afghanistan diplomatic recognition. A possible rationale for Russia could be that Russia seeks to bring the Afghan Taliban into its strategic orbit, thereby gaming influence over Afghanistan’s security trajectory. By engaging directly with it, Russia may be hoping to shape Taliban behavior, counter the IS–K and limit Western re-entry into the region. The Afghan Taliban, facing international isolation, may also view Russia as a crucial partner for potential legitimacy and a source of military and economic support.
Such inappropriate, through commonly used tactics in international relations, may carry more risks than benefits for regional peace including Russia. By providing political cover and military support, Russia may unwittingly legitimize a regime that continues to host and sustain terrorist networks. The Afghan Taliban may leverage this Russian support to strengthen its internal control while maintaining its existing nexus with extremist groups. Moscow’s narrative of co-operating with the Afghan Taliban to contain terrorism does not hold much weight. Cooperation may actually be strengthening a region actively nurturing terrorist groups. The engagement with the Afghan Taliban regime may actually undermine the very security objectives Russia seeks to achieve. Russia’s engagement policy towards the Afghan Taliban represents a very high-stake geopolitical gamble. By engaging with a maverick regime in pursuit of strategic influence, Russia seems to be acting desperately. The fact of the matter is that Afghanistan under Taliban rule poses multifaceted challenges to regional and global security. Any effort to engage with such a reality must weigh the risks of militarization and legitimization against the perceived benefits. History has shown that engagement and appeasement of terrorism does not work.
—The writer, based in Islamabad, is a former Health Minister of KP.
