PAKISTAN has seen its temperature rise by an estimated 0.57°C over time, marking a notable increase. This warming trend has been most pronounced during the winter and post-monsoon periods, particularly affecting the southern regions where winter temperatures have risen by between 0.91°C and 1.12°C. The average daily maximum temperatures have increased by 0.89°C from 1961 to 2020, outpacing the overall average temperature rise. The frequency of heatwaves has also surged. Geographically, historical warming has been most intense in western Pakistan, with temperatures around Islamabad rising by 1.3°C, compared to a 0.9°C increase near Karachi.
Currently, the annual likelihood of experiencing a heatwave in any given location in Pakistan stands at approximately 3%. On the other side, the arid plains and coastal regions have experienced a 10%-15% reduction in average rainfall, leading to the degradation of wetlands and mangrove ecosystems. Conversely, other regions have seen a minor increase in rainfall, with a noticeable rise in the frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall events during recent decades. Current data indicates that glaciers in the headwaters of the Indus Basin may be experiencing expansion due to increased winter precipitation in the Himalayan region over the past 30 years. This trend contrasts with the general pattern of glacier retreat observed in many other parts of the world.
Annually, many regions in Pakistan encounter temperatures of 38°C or higher. When weather patterns converge to create extended heatwaves, the human health impacts can be severe. From 2000 to 2023, Pakistan experienced 152 heatwaves, about seven per year, with a noticeable upward trend. Cities such as Karachi and Lahore are among the most vulnerable to the effects of extreme heat, where temperatures that once would have been classified as heatwaves and associated with significant mortality risks are becoming increasingly routine. Future projections suggest a substantial increase in heatwave frequency. Multi-model ensemble forecasts indicate that the median annual probability of a heatwave occurring could rise from the current 3% to between 4% and 23%, depending on the emissions pathway. This forecast highlights the growing urgency for robust heat management strategies to address the escalating health risks associated with rising temperatures.
Pakistan’s water resources, particularly within the Indus Basin, are increasingly uncertain due to climate change. The region is facing heightened risks of both floods and droughts, and the long-term outlook for water resources remains ambiguous. Changes in annual rainfall patterns and seasonal distribution are anticipated, while the impact of climate change on the Karakoram glaciers continues to be a topic of debate. According to a 2021 review by the UNDP, there is a significant gap in our understanding of the upper Indus Basin glaciers, as a comprehensive inventory is lacking. While the immediate effects of climate change on water resources might be relatively modest, longer-term temperature increases are expected to lead to glacier loss, reduced runoff, and shifts in seasonal water availability. The extent to which these changes will balance out the initial impacts is still uncertain. Potential consequences of climate change in the Indus Basin include declining reservoir capacity and increased pressure on groundwater resources. These changes underscore the need for adaptive water management strategies to mitigate the anticipated impacts and ensure sustainable water availability in the region.
Pakistan is also confronting severe challenges related to land degradation, desertification, and the expansion of drylands, primarily driven by human activities such as overgrazing, excessive exploitation of water resources, over-cultivation, and the intensive use of fertilizers. The National Action Programme to Combat Desertification struggles with implementation obstacles, hampering its effectiveness. Climate change exacerbates these issues, with higher emissions scenarios potentially increasing the extent of hyper-arid land, leading to more frequent and severe droughts in arid and semi-arid regions. The ongoing expansion of drylands and desertification could result in sedimentation of reservoirs, intensified dust storms, and significant losses in biodiversity. In response, initiatives like Clean Green Pakistan, Billion Tree Tsunami have been launched with the goal of restoring Pakistan’s natural environment and focus on extensive tree planting efforts. Climate change is expected to significantly disrupt global food production through direct and indirect mechanisms affecting crop growth. Direct effects include changes in carbon dioxide levels, precipitation patterns, and temperatures, which can influence crop yields. Indirect effects include shifts in water resource availability, soil organic matter transformations, increased soil erosion, pest and disease profiles, the spread of invasive species, and the reduction of arable land due to coastal erosion and desertification.
Climate change is drastically affecting Pakistan’s agriculture, a sector crucial for both employment and economic stability. Rising temperatures have led to a 10% decline in labour productivity during peak agricultural seasons, with potential drops of up to 20% by 2050 if emissions continue to rise. Key crops, including wheat, rice, cotton, sugarcane, and maize, are at risk, with temperature increases of 0.5°C to 2°C potentially causing yield losses of 8% to 10%. The livestock sector, although less studied, saw a severe 48% reduction in output during the 2014-2020 drought. Pakistan needs to prioritize research and development to develop climate-resilient crops and farming methods, improve water management to adapt to changing precipitation patterns, support farmers with training and resources, boost labour productivity, and foster international collaboration to address climate change impacts. Comprehensive policy integration will ensure these efforts are effective and sustainable, contributing to global environmental and food security goals while managing immediate threats to agriculture.
—The writer is PhD in Political Science and visiting faculty member at QAU Islamabad.
