ACCORDING to the results of the 2024 general election, no party is in a position to form the central government on its own. Coalition governments at the federal level and in Balochistan are unavoidable. Meanwhile, in KP, Sindh, and Punjab, PTI, PPP and PMLN will comfortably form their respective governments. Pakistan’s heavily anticipated general election took place on February 8, 2024, with Pakistanis hoping that it might prove to be a step toward ending political uncertainty. Ten days later, it still remains unclear what the result of the vote will yield. Three of the leading contenders, PTI, PMLN and PPP, have claimed victory amid allegations of vote rigging and disputed ballots. What the results of the election mean and what could happen next, nobody knows. The winners and losers are all protesting against massive rigging in the streets. Gross allegations of rigging have created a mess in the country. Nobody knows where this fuss will lead the already confused nation of 250 million. It is still unclear who will govern Pakistan for the next five years.
This is how political matters get tricky and confused. The independents backed by Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf and headed by convicted and jailed Imran Khan have emerged as the largest party in the National Assembly, with around 92 candidates winning seats as “Independents.” The PTI candidates had to run as so-called “Independents” because the party was barred from using its electoral symbol, a cricket bat, after a three-member bench of the Supreme Court ruled that PTI had failed to hold ‘Intra-Party’ elections in line with its Constitution.
Shehbaz Sharif, who took over the reins from Imran Khan in 2022, and his brother, former three-time Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, are believed to have the backing of the powerful Pakistani Establishment. The PMLN couldn’t perform in the general election as per expectations. With 265 seats in Parliament, it means the PTI, PMLN and PPP are still well short of the number needed to form the federal government on their own. Following the “Independents” with 92, the PMLN remained second with 78 seats and the PPP third with 54, a tally that is likely to be boosted by the addition of party-aligned independents.
Neither PMLN nor PTI can form a government ignoring PPP. After the elections, with the leading number of seats, PTI, the front-runner to lead, was willing to form the federal government solely without a coalition and the required numbers. For any party without the required majority numbers in the assembly, it is simply impossible to form a government. The PTI, JUIF, ANP, GDA and many other parties believe that their mandate is stolen. The PPP secured 54 seats, obtaining the third position. This puts it in a position to help another party form a coalition at the federal level. The PPP secures the most pivotal position among the top position holders.
The PTI has already formally registered complaints of so-called rigging in 18 constituencies. It is more likely that a coalition will emerge among the other parties, led by the PMLN. But the question is whether that will satisfy an electorate that voted the PTI as the largest party in parliament. I don’t think so. The PTI, as always, will create permanent fuss in and outside the parliament. This time, Imran’s worst political opponent, Maulana Fazl-ur-Rehman, will join hands with him to create more chaos and uncertainty in the country. In 2014, Imran Khan joined hands with another religious cleric, Tahir-ul-Qadri. Religious clerics do not enjoy a majority in the assemblies but hold strong street power. The PTI claims that it has won 180 seats, enough for it to be able to form a government. But that appears to be completely nonsensical and without evidence. It’s only a wishful claim. It seems that the PTI isn’t ready to accept that it couldn’t get enough votes to form a federal government outright. The party instead is challenging the results, claiming that its vote was suppressed illegally.
Future coalition government doesn’t sound very stable. Pakistan is now entering an uncertain scenario, which is, in effect, a post-election political crisis. Maulana Fazl-ur-Rehman has recently added to this fuss by untimely disclosing that Imran Khan’s government was ousted by General Qamar Javed Bajwa and his likes with the support of PDM. Coalitions are not uncommon in Pakistan’s politics, but these are not easy to manage. They become unwieldy, weak and prone to manipulation.
It also makes it far harder for any government to push through the kind of bold economic packages needed for the country to move forward and escape the deep structural problems that are ailing the economy, such as a limited tax base and reliance on handouts from other countries. Tackling that requires hard, potentially unpopular decisions which are more difficult when a government is split and has a limited popular mandate. The election has been called flawed. By Pakistan’s standards, the actual polling went off relatively peacefully. Martial Law is not an option. A flawed democracy is far better than the military jackboot. Such a messy situation paves the way to martial law.
—The writer is editor, book ambassador political analyst and author of several books based in Islamabad.
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