PAKISTAN has regained strategic significance in the United States’ foreign and strategic calculus without compromising its over six-decade-long steady cordial trajectory with China. Islamabad is striving to sustain a strategic balancing act between being a non-NATO ally of Washington and cementing a strategic economic partnership with Beijing amid increasing strategic competition between China and the United States in international politics. This diplomatic tightrope walk highlights Pakistan’s complex approach to international relations and its embrace of multipolarity. Therefore, observers of international relations are seeking a pertinent question: how does Pakistan manage to balance strategic autonomy in its relations with China and the US in the transforming global strategic environment, especially as regional power shifts influence its options?
The cold-warish rivalry between China and the US is a serious puzzle. To contain China, the Americans have identified and declared India as a natural ally since the end of the Cold War. India’s economic rise, the mega increase in defence spending and its willingness to compromise on its Nehruvian non-aligned foreign policy to be a net security provider in the Indian Ocean, with the patronage of the US, resulted in the Indo-US strategic partnership, including defence agreements, nuclear and space cooperation and increased intelligence sharing, etc.
The increasing strategic cooperation between New Delhi and Washington undermined Pakistan’s relevance in the US strategic outlook. Still, the American war on terror after 9/11and Pakistan’s willingness to cooperate with it during its Operation Enduring Freedom in October 2001, once again revived strategic cooperation between the two states. In 2004, the Bush Administration designated Pakistan as a major non-NATO ally, a partnership rather than a formal alliance, with cooperation on counterterrorism.
Pakistan’s counterterrorism collaboration had secured short-term military and financial benefits without winning the Americans’ trust due to their long-term strategic fixation on China and strategic miscalculation that India would be able to check China’s rise. Consequently, US South Asian affairs have been dominated by an Indo-centric strategy to counterbalance China and have subjected Pakistan to diplomatic pressure (do more) and economic and technological sanctions against its nuclear and missile programs.
The current warmth between Pakistan and the US is anchored in counterterrorism, the Middle East peace process and economic cooperation, including American investment in Pakistan’s mineral sector and efforts to boost trade. Both countries share an interest in ending the two-year Gaza War. Meanwhile, India’s push to revive strategic autonomy and expand trade with Russia frustrated President Trump. Prime Minister Modi’s cautious stance, contrasted with Pakistan’s vocal recognition of Trump’s role in reinstating the cease-fire after the May 10, 2025, India-Pakistan skirmishes, became a catalyst for rebuilding trust and resetting bilateral relations. Pakistan’s public praise and nomination of Trump for a peace prize reflect its strategic effort to influence US policy and regional perceptions, highlighting Islamabad’s careful diplomatic maneuvering in a complex regional environment.
Notably, during the recent warming of relations between Islamabad and Washington, China was not a point of reference. Neither President Trump nor the Pakistani ruling elite mentioned Pakistan-China strategic economic cooperation in their exchange of diplomatic pleasantries. Both sides seem cognizant of the evolving dynamics and limitations of the international strategic environment. American strategic pundits are heavily influenced by Samuel P. Huntington’s “Clash of Civilizations” theory and Graham Allison’s coined term, “Thucydides Trap,” in shaping China policy. Hence, on the strategic chessboard, they cannot underestimate India’s relevance.
The Pakistani ruling elite is fully aware of the rapid changes in the international strategic environment and the resurgence of alliance politics. India’s inclusion in two minilateral security groups—Quad (Australia, India, Japan, US) and I2U2 (India, Israel, UAE, US)—alongside numerous military and emerging technology transfer agreements, indicates that the Indo-US strategic partnership has gradually evolved into a threshold-alliance over the past decade. Despite recent coolness with Prime Minister Modi, President Trump deliberately refrained from grouping India with states—China, Russia, North Korea and Pakistan—accused of underground nuclear testing. This signals to domestic and international audiences that the US does not view India as an adversary on par with these states. Meanwhile, Pakistan continues to maintain strong relations with China and Russia, asserting its strategic autonomy and careful navigation of a multipolar world.
A close examination of the recent Pakistan-US rapprochement shows that Islamabad has not shifted its China policy. On September 3, 2025, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif attended China’s grand military parade in Beijing marking the 80th anniversary of Victory Day in World War II, alongside leaders including Xi Jinping, Vladimir Putin, Kim Jong Un and Masoud Pezeshkian. He also participated in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Summit in Tianjin from August 31 to September 1, 2025. The SCO allows China and Russia to demonstrate their growing influence in a multipolar world and defiance of US-led unipolarity. At the summit, Sharif endorsed President Xi’s Global Governance Initiative, emphasizing that “cold war mentality, hegemony and protectionism continue to haunt world peace and prosperity,” signaling Pakistan’s continued commitment to its strategic partnership with China while navigating complex global dynamics.
In summary, the paradox of coordination and estrangement will continue in Pakistan-US relations. The current enthusiasm on both sides remains tactical and transactional, rather than evolving into a deep strategic alliance. Despite this reality, continuous coordination with Washington is imperative for Pakistan’s national interest. Concurrently, China and Pakistan’s strategic economic partnership will ensure steady progress, promising economic stability and defense sovereignty for the country. Indeed, to maximize its political, financial and security objectives, Islamabad has to pursue a delicate diplomatic policy grounded in a rational analysis of trends in regional and international relations rather than historical nostalgia and rhetorical claims. Thus, Pakistan must maintain strong relations with China while strengthening its ties with the US, demonstrating a multipolar foreign policy that prioritizes its national interests.
—The writer is Prof at the School of Politics and IR, Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad.
