May 28 marks Pakistan’s credible deterrent capability

 

MAY 28, 1998, marked as Yaum-e-Takbeer (Day of Greatness), is considered the day Pakistan’s defense became an “invincible” or impregnable power by officially crossing the nuclear threshold and establishing a credible deterrence against Indian aggression. Every year on May 28, Pakistan celebrates this day to mark its achievement in becoming the seventh nation to publicly test nuclear weapons and the first in the Muslim world. Pakistan conducted its first successful nuclear tests— known as Chagai-1—marking its emergence as a declared nuclear-armed state in South Asia.

This milestone transformed Pakistan’s defense posture, asserting strategic deterrence against regional threats, particularly from India. The tests reinforced national sovereignty and signaled an unbreakable defense capability, earning global recognition and reshaping South Asian geopolitics. The day is commemorated annually as Yaum-e-Takbeer, symbolizing pride in scientific achievement and military resilience. While ‘invincible’ is a strong term, the tests established a credible deterrent, ensuring stability through balance of power. The 1998 nuclear test post-truth warrants the fact that today Pakistan is a great military power.

Aims & objectives: In response to India’s Pokhran-II nuclear tests in May 1998, Pakistan conducted its own series of underground nuclear tests on May 28-30, 1998, codenamed Chagai-I and II respectively. These tests, carried out at the Ras Koh Range, made Pakistan the seventh country and the first Muslim-majority nation to possess nuclear weapons. The move was a strategic deterrent response to India’s perceived military advantage, significantly altering regional security dynamics and triggering concerns over an arms race in South Asia. Pakistan’s swift action underscored its commitment to strategic balance in South Asia. Thus, Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal remains a cornerstone of its national security and international influence.

Fairly arguing that the nuclear arsenal acts as a deterrent designed to prevent conventional, large-scale war, ensuring that any attempt to threaten Pakistan’s sovereignty is met with a massive, unstoppable response: By moving from a policy of ambiguity to a declared nuclear power, Pakistan sent a clear message to rivals that its security is guaranteed, effectively closing the window on total war options against it. The focus shifted from solely conventional weapons to a combined, advanced deterrence strategy. The successful tests of Chagai-I and later Chagai-II (on May 30) demonstrated that Pakistan had the technical capacity to develop nuclear warheads, making its defense posture, in the view of many, unbeatable.

The PAEC role: The Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission (PAEC) played a crucial role in the 1998 nuclear tests by constructing the Chagai test site in Balochistan, providing the infrastructure necessary for underground detonations. PAEC also led the technical execution of cold tests, which were vital for validating weapon designs without full-scale testing. With decades of experience in nuclear research and development, PAEC coordinated scientific and engineering efforts, ensuring the success of the six tests conducted in May 1998. The agency’s leadership under figures like Dr. Abdul Qadeer Khan solidified its central role in Pakistan’s strategic nuclear program, marking a pivotal moment in national security and regional deterrence.

Doctrinal evolution: Pakistan nuclear doctrine evolved gradually. As Advisor to the National Command Authority (NCA), Lt. Gen. (Retd) Khalid Ahmed Kidwai played a pivotal role in shaping Pakistan’s nuclear policy and strategic deterrence: As mentor, he framed the doctrine as “Full Spectrum Credible Minimum Deterrence” (FSCMD), maintaining that it keeps Indian military designs in check by ensuring Indian strategic weapons have no place to hide. As a key architect, he conceived the doctrine by advocating for a flexible, responsive nuclear posture that ensures deterrence across all conflict levels, reinforcing strategic stability through credible escalation dominance.

Quintessentially, Pakistan’s nuclear doctrine evolved from minimum deterrence to Full Spectrum Deterrence (FSD) to counter India’s conventional superiority and credible second-strike capability. Pakistan’s nuclear doctrine evolved from post-1998 “Credible Minimum Deterrence” (CMD) to “Full Spectrum Deterrence” (FSD) around 2011–2013, designed to deter India’s conventional “Cold Start” doctrine. FSD provides coverage from 0 meters to 2750 km, enabling a tiered, flexible response capability at strategic, operational, and tactical level. This shift, influenced by strategic threats and regional instability, emphasized a range of retaliatory options, including tactical nuclear weapons. Pakistan’s commitment to nuclear responsibility is evident in its strong collaboration with the IAEA, spanning decades. The country has actively engaged in peaceful nuclear applications, signed the Nuclear Security Cooperation Program in 2005, and maintains six operational nuclear power plants under robust IAEA oversight. This partnership enhances nuclear safety, security, and governance, reinforcing Pakistan’s role as a responsible nuclear state. Continuous cooperation supports technological advancement, regulatory capacity, and adherence to international standards.

Today, Pakistan maintains a robust, three-pronged delivery system—air, land, and sea-based—designed to ensure survivability. In 2026, Pakistan was consistently ranked among the world’s most powerful militaries. For instance, the Global Firepower (GFP) Index for 2026 listed Pakistan at 14th out of 145 countries. Other analyses, such as Warpower: Pakistan, often place Pakistan within the top 10 for rapid-response military power, with specialized capabilities in tactical, short-range missiles and a highly proficient air force. The country has developed sophisticated missile systems, including the Shaheen series (including the in-development Shaheen-3) and cruise missiles like Babur, which serve as crucial elements of its deterrence strategy.

During the May 2025 armed conflict with India, Pakistan presented its actions as those of a “responsible nuclear state” by adopting a posture of restrained retaliation and calibrated, conventional-only responses despite intense military pressure. While India launched strikes—including precision-guided munitions and cruise missiles—across the line of control (LoC) on May 7, Pakistani leadership maintained that its response was measured to prevent further escalation into a nuclear exchange, characterized by some analysts as a “quid pro quo plus” strategy. To conclude, Pakistan’s nuclear capability serves as a credible deterrent, ensuring strategic stability and safeguarding its sovereignty and territorial integrity against Indian aggression.

—The writer is an independent IR & International Law analyst.

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