Below-normal rains and above-normal temperatures are likely in Pakistan during December 2025.
Synoptic Situation:
The state of the global Earth system suggests that the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), currently in the negative phase, is projected to transition to a neutral state by the end of the forecast month. Meanwhile, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is in a neutral phase and is expected to persist in the same phase during the forecast month.
Monthly Rainfall Outlook:
Based on this analysis, a general tendency for below-normal rainfall is anticipated across most parts of Pakistan during December 2025. The largest negative departures are expected over northern Punjab, Balochistan, much of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Kashmir, and Gilgit-Baltistan.
Southern Punjab, Sindh and its adjoining areas of Balochistan are likely to receive near normal rainfall during December 2025.
Monthly Temperature Outlook:
Mean temperatures are expected to remain above normal nationwide, with maximum departure over Gilgit-Baltistan, Kashmir, the coastal belt of Balochistan and northern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa in December 2025.
Impacts:
Below-normal rainfall may reduce water availability for irrigation in rain-fed agricultural areas, potentially affecting germination and early growth of Rabi crops. Slightly warmer-than-normal temperatures may extend the dengue season, particularly in areas where mosquito breeding is more prevalent, such as Punjab, Sindh, and Balochistan. Health authorities may need to remain vigilant for vector control efforts.
The below-normal rainfall may affect reservoir replenishment levels, particularly in areas that rely on December rainfall for early water storage. Water management authorities should monitor reservoir levels and prepare for potential shortages if dry conditions persist.
A decline in air quality may result in smog formation in the plains of the country, posing health risks for sensitive groups, particularly children and the elderly. This can exacerbate respiratory illnesses, affecting those with asthma or other chronic lung conditions.
The rainfall deficit and cool nights are expected to promote fog formation, especially in central and eastern Punjab, the adjoining areas of KP and upper Sindh. Reduced visibility due to fog could disrupt highway travel and cause delays at major roadways and airports, particularly during late nights and early mornings.
