Dr Ammad Farrukh
AT a time, when Pakistan’s conventional security stakes are significantly high, with active conflict being fought on the western border and a highly intensified eastern border; it is grappling with a challenge that its leadership and institutions fail to realize. Water Security has become one of the core non-conventional security challenges in the recent times, as recurrent flooding has wrecked the backbone of country’s infrastructure, crops and most importantly threatened the human survival. Bad governance, mismanagement and politicization of resources have hindered the construction of dams; while intensified relationship with India has led to the abeyance of Indus Water treaty, which has significantly impacted the survival of millions of Pakistanis.
Indus Water Treaty was signed in 1960 between India and Pakistan, with the facilitation of the World Bank; wherein, it was agreed that roughly 80% of the water from this river system would belong to Pakistan; while 20% of the water will be used by India. Six decades of cooperation has come to the halt due to aggravated geopolitics and unfortunately, Pakistan being a lower riparian state, is on the losing end. Pakistan’s irrigation system, hydropower generation and food production are intricately associated with the rivers governed by this treaty; and while diplomatic and legal efforts have been underway to address the crisis, nevertheless, strained ties between India and Pakistan may further aggravate this challenge. Reportedly, flood alerts during the 2025 monsoon season were communicated between the two sides through diplomatic channels, instead of channels established through the treaty.
This cold inter-governmental exchange highlights an important notion, that mismanagement of available water remains no longer an option for Pakistan. Time is of essence, particularly at a stage when Pakistan simultaneously faces the challenge of water scarcity and water excess, both of which have been an incontrovertible challenge. While the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) has affirmed Pakistan’s position of the Indus Waters Treaty by placing substantive limits on India’s water-control capability on the Indus River system’s western rivers; however, the India’s Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) has categorically rejected the decision by PCA, indicating that a unilateral abeyance of the treaty will remain intact.
The Indus River System is a complex network of six major rivers—the Indus, Jhelum, Chenab, Ravi, Sutlej and Kabul—that sustains the livelihoods of more than 240 million Pakistanis. Punjab remains the epicentre of this river system, as flooding in the Chenab River places Sialkot, Gujrat, Wazirabad, Hafizabad, Chiniot, and Jhang at significant risk; when the water flow rises at Marala, Khanki, Qadirabad and Trimmu Barrages. Likewise, Ravi River affects Lahore, Narowal and Kasur; whereas, the Sutlej River through downstream flooding affects Bahawalnagar, Okara, Pakpattan, Kasur and Bahawalpur. Furthermore, Jhelum River affects Jhelum, Mandi Bahauddin and Sarai Alamgir; whereas, Indus River causes riverine flooding; thereby, affecting the districts of Dera Ghazi Khan, Taunsa, Muzaffargarh, Layyah and Rajanpur.
These floods eventually move on to the Sindh region which is affected by Indus River flooding, backwater effects from upstream Punjab floods, hill torrents from Balochistan, Monsoon rainfall accumulation and poor drainage issues in the low-lying areas. Sindh becomes the receiving basin of the Indus river system and cumulatively affects districts of Jacobabad, Kashmore-Kandhkot, Ghotki, Larkana, Qambar Shahdadkot, Dadu, Khairpur, Sanghar, Nawabshah, Matiari, Hyderabad, Sujawal, Thatta and Badin. Due to underdeveloped infrastructure, floodwaters in Sindh continue to hinder the survival of local population for month after the peak river flows have dwindled upstream; spreading viral diseases and undermining their livelihoods. As per the statistics of the World Bank, Floods in 2022 affected 33 million people, with a prospective financial loss of more than $30 billion. More than 08 million people were also facing health issues due to disease outbreaks. Such enormous implications across Punjab and Sindh highlights the vulnerabilities related to human security and survival of millions of people.
Pakistan needs a comprehensive approach to address its vulnerabilities related to Indus water saga. While initially the state needs to realize the severity of the issue by deeming water security as a national security threat; it must take immediate action for construction of small dams and water reservoirs across Punjab and Sindh in particular to save the overflowing river water. Development across various districts will not only create opportunities for people, but will also save water for the local population. Roughly 90% of Pakistan’s food production is dependent on the streams of Indus water; whereas, the agricultural production of cotton, rice, sugarcane and wheat is primarily carried out in Punjab, making it a national food security issue, instead of a provincial one. Hence, a unified approach is required to address these challenges, instead of lingering in pity political disputes.
—The writer is the Chief Operating Officer of Bhoond-e-Shams.
