When India’s Light Combat Aircraft (LCA) Tejas crashed during a high-profile display at the Dubai Air Show on 21 November 2025, the symbolism was impossible to ignore. Defence Ministers and delegations from across the globe were present, watching as India’s flagship indigenous fighter program faltered in front of the very audience it sought to impress.
For a nation that has invested decades in projecting self-reliance in defence production, the incident was more than a tragic mishap. It was a public setback that underscored the fragility of India’s military-industrial ambitions.
Air shows are stages where nations demonstrate technological credibility and strategic confi-dence. A crash in such a setting sends the opposite signal: unreliability, vulnerability and re-putational damage. The Tejas program, already criticized for delays and production bottle-necks, now faces intensified scrutiny. Causes of the air-crash will be clear after in-depth in-vestigations but India has to face public humiliation.
Commentators note that while accidents at air shows are rare, they leave lasting impressions. For India, the Dubai crash has become a cautionary tale about the risks of showcasing unfin-ished or underperforming systems on the global stage. At the same venue, Pakistan’s co-produced JF 17 Thunder Block III, developed jointly with China, was drawing attention. Marketed as “battle-tested,” the aircraft reportedly secured provisional agreements with for-eign buyers.
Observers highlighted the contrast: India’s indigenous fighter program faltered, while Paki-stan’s collaborative model delivered tangible export success. For regional analysts, this jux-taposition reflected divergent approaches — India’s pursuit of self-reliance versus Pakistan’s reliance on partnerships and shared technology. Ironically, Indian media had been taunting Pakistan for its JF-17 Thunder entry till disaster struck the Tejas. Indian media learnt no les-sons from the May 7 and 10, 2025 catastrophe its air force faced.
The Indian Air Force (IAF) has long aspired to maintain 42 fighter squadrons to credibly de-ter both Pakistan and China. Today, however, the number has fallen to 29, with older aircraft like the MiG 29, Jaguar and Mirage 2000 nearing retirement. The Tejas was supposed to fill this gap. Yet production delays, supply chain issues and now reputational damage from the Dubai crash have dashed hopes of rapid induction. Analysts warn that India may be forced to rely on costly off-the-shelf purchases — such as additional Rafales — to plug immediate gaps.
India’s acquisition of French Rafale fighters was once hailed as a game-changer. But reports of Rafales being shot down during the May 2025 aerial battle with Pakistan have dented their aura of invincibility. While Dassault Aviation has not publicly withdrawn from the Indian market, commentators argue that the episode has complicated India’s procurement narrative.
Critics suggest that India’s reliance on foreign imports is expensive and politically fraught, yet indigenous alternatives like Tejas are struggling to deliver.
The Tejas crash has reignited debate about India’s wider indigenous defence programs. Commentators point to a pattern of underperformance:
Main Battle Tank Arjun: Despite decades of development, the Arjun has faced weight and mobility issues. Its induction has been limited, with the Army preferring imported or up-graded T 90 tanks.
Missile Systems Akash and Prithvi: While operational, these systems are often described as outdated compared to modern equivalents. Questions persist about their survivability against advanced electronic warfare and missile defence systems.
Tejas Fighter: The crash reinforced perceptions of fragility, compounded by delays and lim-ited export prospects. Together, these programs highlight the difficulty of achieving true self-reliance in defence production.
Meanwhile, Pakistan’s JF 17 success demonstrates the advantages of collaborative develop-ment. By partnering with China, Pakistan has leveraged economies of scale, shared technol-ogy and political backing to produce a fighter that is both affordable and exportable.
For India, the lesson is stark: self-reliance without efficiency risks irrelevance.
The timing of the crash also matters in the wider Indo-Pacific. China is expanding its carrier operations, Pakistan is marketing its fighters and India is struggling to maintain squadron strength. In such an environment, India’s credibility as a regional security provider is weak-ened.
If India cannot field reliable indigenous systems, it risks becoming dependent on imports at a time when strategic autonomy is most needed. Beyond the technical failures, the Tejas crash has triggered a crisis of confidence. Defence analysts argue that India’s defence establish-ment has often prioritized symbolism over substance — unveiling ambitious projects without ensuring production efficiency or operational reliability.
The Arjun tank, Akash missile and Tejas fighter were all meant to symbolize India’s rise as a defence innovator. Yet each has struggled to meet expectations. The Dubai crash crystallized these doubts, forcing policymakers to confront the uncomfortable reality that India’s defence industry may not yet be ready to compete on the global stage. The path forward requires introspection and reform. India must:
Streamline procurement and production: Reduce bureaucratic delays and ensure timely delivery of platforms.
Invest in R&D partnerships: Consider selective collaborations with trusted partners to ac-celerate technology transfer.
Prioritize reliability over symbolism: Focus on producing fewer but more dependable sys-tems rather than chasing ambitious numbers.
Strengthen testing and quality assurance: Ensure that platforms showcased abroad are bat-tle-ready and resilient.
Without such reforms, India risks repeating the cycle of overpromising and underdelivering.
India’s goal of achieving 42 squadrons now looks increasingly unattainable. Rafale’s tar-nished image, combined with the underperformance of indigenous programs like Arjun, Akash and Prithvi, underscores the depth of India’s challenges. Unless India can reform its defence industrial base, streamline production and deliver reliable systems, its dream of self-reliance will remain elusive. The Dubai crash was not just an accident — it was a wake-up call.
—The writer, Retired Group Captain of PAF, is author of several books on China.
