Rizwan Ghani
THERE is an opportunity created by Trump and coronavirus pandemic in which world is resetting its alliances and Pakistan cannot afford to miss it. With Gulf States transiting from religious alliances to trade, Pakistan should also adopt independent policies. It will break the shackles of past that are self defeating and disastrous for the country and its people. And we should adopt policies that make government answerable to public, rule of law and the state. Independent Pakistan is our policy. Trump became president on his America first policy. During his term the country did not go to war and his Afghan US troop drawdown was an attempt to end forever wars. The figures of the economy, jobs and unemployment remained healthy during his term. It was his nationalist policies that won him record 70 million plus votes. Any Pakistani government cannot ignore country first in globalization.
America under Biden will have to be shadow of Trumponomics and Trumpism. Biden’s pledge to rejoin Paris Climate Accord was doomed by Trump’s G-20 statement of “Designed to kill US economy”. Any step to open US to globalization will become Obama care or Iran deal. It explains realignments in ME, Iran standoff and Biden’s fragility to regain US world leadership. That is why both Johnson (Brexit) and Merkel (look East) have adopted country first approaches and Pakistan is also on its own. Similarly, India’s stayed out of Regional Comprehensive Economic Cooperation to save its economy from cheap imports and dumping. Beijing also saved RCEP through “shallow integration” of 15-member alliance for political benefits because economic alliance failed just as Trump had abandoned TPP alliance in favor of domestic consumption based model (DCBM) to save US jobs, wages and economy. If Pakistan is going to charge international rates then it will have to pay international prices to save its economy.
Shallow integration is the new approach because globalization and trade alliances and loans are low yield. Research says RCEP will benefit 0.2% to each member state. Like PPP Sindh government, UK Tory government’s has been in power for more than a decade during that time figures show increase in living cost, corruption and unemployment. The two- year performance of our current government has shown similar results which merits change in economic model, financial system and state control. By adopting DCBM, Pakistan can be economically independent. The $52bn import bill can be reduced by giving policies for creating jobs in cottage industry, SME, IT, renewable energy, and technical and vocational training for energy ($13bn), food ($4.7bn), machinery ($6.7bn), transport ($2.3bn), textile ($3.4bn), agriculture and other chemicals ($8.9bn), iron and steel ($3.9bn) and other imports ($3.5bn). By giving loans, the corruption of rewarding private business with tax money can be ended.
Agriculture is foundation of food security and integration. Our current food supply chains, business models and labor systems extract wealth from our rural communities. By giving our small farmers access to user friendly Apps, Wi-Fi and internet it can be eliminated. A redesigned procurement system across the country using IT technology linking individual buyers and small sellers will bring down prices, improve income of small farmers, and end corruption through transparency. Then America used distribution of land (Homestead Law), irrigation dams, value addition industry, railway and transport system and energy plan. By relocating 30-50 million people across Pakistan including Baluchistan, it can end reliance on foreign debt, create jobs and improve living standards. The use of roads, railway, air service and waterways can help us meet our domestic and international demand. We can build our railway system in record time with our factories of coaches and sleepers.
State should take control of public welfare. Britain used 6000 DCs (bureaucracy) to run the entire subcontinent immaculately. DCs had line departments with government professionals including education, health and police. They used to oversee all areas related to public. Due to strong system of check and balance, there was little scope of corruption. If government is serious to build schools, hospitals, improve public safety, and end corruption then return public development funds and police under DCs. Politically, it is no coincident that Trump’s average voter is voting in Pakistan’s elections also? America voted for populist Trump because it was abandoned by an economic and police system that is not accountable to state, judiciary and the democracy. The same mindset voted for change in Pakistan’s elections because it is governed by same western democracy which is failing to protect weak against the strong while state, judiciary and media fail to play their due role. There are lessons in Trump’s victory and defeat for Pakistan. Trump made claims of strong economy, more employment and improved social integration but American dream is nowhere to be seen. It shows that government has failed to protect weak against strong. Results show that populism can win elections but cannot serve masses. Pakistan should therefore restore its 1973 Constitution and original parliamentary system so that government is accountable to pubic, state and rule of law. It will be only possible in independent Pakistan.
—The writer is senior political analyst based in Islamabad.
