IMF revises Pakistan’s GDP growth to 3.9%

IMF revises Pakistan's GDP growth to 3.9%

Pakistan’s real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate was revised up to 3.9 percent by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday.

In its World Economic Outlook report 2021 (update), the IMF said, “Projections are revised up for the Middle East and Central Asia due to robust activity in some countries (such as …Pakistan)”.

Earlier this year, the IMF predicted that Pakistan’s real GDP will expand at 1.5 percent in 2021, despite the State Bank of Pakistan’s projection of 3.0 percent (SBP).

Pakistan’s government has already published preliminary GDP growth statistics (3.9 percent) for 2020-21, which is supported by strong industrial development and higher-than-expected agricultural production.

The SBP projected GDP growth of 4-5 percent this year, up from 3.9 percent in FY21, and average inflation of 7-9 percent, down from its previous higher out-turns.

In a statement, the IMF stated that since the April 2021 World Economic Outlook (WEO) projection, economic prospects have varied even further among nations.

Vaccine access has served as the main fault line dividing the global recovery into two groups: those who may expect a return to normalcy later this year (almost all advanced economies) and others who will continue to suffer recurrent illnesses and increasing Covid death tolls, according to the report.

Even in nations where infections are presently extremely low, recovery is not guaranteed as long as the virus spreads elsewhere.

In 2021 and 2022, the global economy is expected to expand by 6.0 percent and 4.9 percent, respectively.

The worldwide prediction for 2021 is unchanged from the April 2021 WEO, although there are some offset adjustments. By 2021, the outlook for emerging markets and developing economies has been lowered, particularly for Emerging Asia.

The estimate for advanced economies, on the other hand, has been raised. These updates take into account pandemic trends as well as changes in policy support. The forecast upgrade of 0.5 percentage points for 2022 is largely due to the forecast upgrade for advanced economies, particularly the United States, which reflects the anticipated legislation of additional financial support in the second half of 2021 as well as improved health metrics across the group.

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