THE humankind is subjected to the dual nuclear crises—nuclear arms race and prospering illicit nuclear bazaar. Nuclear vertical proliferation is ensuing due to the deliberate decision of the nuclear-armed states to modernize their nuclear arsenals to cope with the transforming global strategic environment. Simultaneously, the illicit nuclear bazaar is growing due to irresponsible national leadership, the discriminatory approach of international institutions, and outdated national and international nuclear monitoring systems.
The nuclear taboo—a normative inhibition against the first use of nuclear weapons—has desisted the nuclear-armed states from employing nuclear weapons in war. However, the nuclear taboo will not impede terrorist groups from using nuclear radiological material in their attacks. Indeed, the probability of nuclear radiological terrorism has been increasing in South Asia with the growing illicit nuclear bazaar in India. In recent years, many nuclear material trafficking incidents in India have been reported. The latest one was the arrest of three smugglers and recovery of 50 grams of radioactive californium worth 850crore Indian rupees (over $100 million) by the local police on August 8, 2024. The repeated incidents of nuclear theft accentuate that India has emerged as a potential hotspot in the illegal trade of nuclear radioactive materials.
The recurring incidents involving the theft and sale of nuclear and radioactive materials in India reveal that the country’s nuclear facilities’ safety and security mechanisms contain loopholes. One of the important shortcomings is the Indian government’s failure to develop an independent nuclear regulatory body. Besides, India’s border management is also pitiable. Consequently, the nuclear smugglers can easily transfer the radioactive material bought from the Indian nuclear bazaar to the neighbouring states. For instance, in February 2022, eight people, including two Indian nationals, were arrested in Nepal for illegally possessing and attempting to sell a “uranium-like substance.” The investigation revealed that material was smuggled from India.
The cross-border smuggling of radioactive material poses a serious challenge to the national security of the neighbouring states of India. On August 13, 2024, Pakistan’s Foreign Office spokesperson Mumtaz Zahra Baloch said, “Pakistan is gravely concerned at the reports of recurring incidents of theft and illicit sale of nuclear and other radioactive materials in India.” She stressed, “The international community seeks an earnest disclosure from the Indian authorities as to how a sealed Radioactive Source (SRS) material, like californium, was in the possession of the apprehended individuals.” Ironically, the international community seems the least concerned about the routinely found sensitive radioactive material in the wrong hands in India.
The apathetic approach towards the growing nuclear black market in India or anywhere else is perilous for international security. Last year, the United Nations nuclear watchdog—the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)—recovered ten drums containing approximately 2.5 tonnes of uranium ore concentrate in Libya. The incident did not attract much attention because the general impression is that natural uranium cannot immediately be used for energy production or bomb fuel. It’s an erroneous conclusion that missing uranium could not be used for nefarious designs due to the non-availability of the uranium enrichment facility to the traffickers. According to the scientists, “even if a group lacked the ability to enrich the materials, natural uranium could be packed into conventional weapons, resulting in catastrophe.” Thus, the stolen uranium from the nuclear facility could be utilized in nuclear terrorism.
Since the United States-led NATO force’s withdrawal from Afghanistan, al-Qaeda has been regaining its strength in the country. The United Nations Security Council report published on January 29, 2024 (S/2024/92), states, “Al-Qaeda was reported to have established up to eight new training camps in Afghanistan, including four in Ghazni, Laghman, Parwan, and Uruzgan Provinces, with a new base to stockpile weaponry in the Panjshir Valley.” Besides the resurgence, the organization has been striving to get hold of nuclear radiological material. On December 12, 2022, Newsweek reported that the group behind 9/11 got hands-on material to make a nuclear bomb. Ironically, the Western and Israeli media linked the transfer of the material to Al-Qaeda with Iran without any tangible source but refrained from identifying and referring to the actual Indian nuclear black market in the region. The international community’s failure to control and erase the illicit nuclear bazaar in India eases the acquisition of nuclear material for terrorism. Notably, the terrorists are not constrained by the logic of mutually assured destruction or international agreements of restraint.
In summary, India’s prospering illicit nuclear bazaar necessitates prompt responses from the International Atomic Energy Agency and other relevant international institutions. They ought to pursue New Delhi to raise the nuclear safety and security standards in the country to prevent the severe threats of nuclear terrorism in South Asia.
—The writer is Prof at the School of Politics and International Relations, Quaid-i-Azam University.
