GERMANY’S rearmament is not a straightforward process.
It is complicated by the United States-led NATO security dividend, a concept that refers to the benefits and responsibilities that member states of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) share. This dividend has significantly altered Germany’s industrial and societal strategic cultural abilities to meet military demands. What’s intriguing is that the European nations that were once concerned about German reunification creating an over-powerful German state are now advocating for Berlin to expand its military power for the defense of Europe from Russia. This shift in attitude is a direct result of the Trump Administration’s intention to disengage from European defense.
The German Army deployed 45 Armoured Brigade, a German combat brigade, in Vilnius on May 22, 2025. The German Defence Minister, Boris Pistorius, confirmed Germany’s interest in purchasing the mobile Typhon missile launch system, which is capable of firing both short-range ballistic and medium-range cruise missiles in July 2025. The deployment and purchase of medium-range missile systems with a range of up to 2,000 kilometers are perhaps the earliest visible manifestation of ‘Zeitenwende’ – loosely translated as ‘turning point—the security policy shift announced by German Chancellor Olaf Scholz immediately after the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
The ‘Zeitenwende’ marks a profound cultural and political shift for a nation that was once rebuilt on a pacifist and demilitarized legacy post-World War- II. Besides, the modernization of armed forecs, the German Government is focusing on the whole of society approach to defence, i.e., integrating all sectors—government, private and civil society—to bolster national security through a combination of military and non-military capabilities and a strong societal resilience aiming to ensure society can withstand and recover from threats by maintaining its essential functions and infrastructure during times of crisis. A comprehensive approach to national defense includes mandatory civil conscription of vital, skilled individuals.
Indeed, a comprehensive approach to national defense requires a transformation in public attitude towards military careers and public threat awareness. It is because the disarmament and arms control initiatives had long been a central pillar of Germany’s foreign policy. In the 1980s, the government’s decision to allow Pershing II deployments triggered mass protests and political upheaval in Germany. Before the start of the Ukraine war on February 24, 2022, many Germans opposed hosting U.S. nuclear weapons on their territory and were in favour of signing the nuclear ban treaty. Nevertheless, Berlin needs to revise its Cold War-era disarmament, arms control and nuclear non-proliferation approaches, as they no longer suit today’s security environment in Germany.
The new government, constituted in May 2025, endorsed former Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s initiatives to modernize the German armed forces. The continuity of military upgradation testifies that the country’s military rejuvenation is permanent and lasting. Consequently, there is a higher investment in domestic production of defense equipment (planned €108.2bn defense budget for 2026) and construction of new military bases. Moreover, Germany has invested in the development of the Main Ground Combat System (MGCS), Next Generation Weapon System, and Deep Precision Strike capabilities to ensure the availability of these armaments for the armed forces by 2040.
The Ukraine war and Trump’s approach towards European security have strengthened the defense and security cooperation between France, Germany and the United Kingdom. It is expected that the French Presidency and the German Chancellery will start a strategic dialogue to deepen further Franco-German cooperation in matters of foreign, security and defense policy. They announced a plan to launch a Franco-German Early Warning Initiative. This initiative, with two pillars: a space-based missile early warning system based on ODIN’s EYE project and a network of ground-based radars, relying on existing and future technologies, is a significant step towards enhancing German security.
German leadership realizes the significance of the extended nuclear deterrence ensured by a nuclear-weapon state. Being a non-nuclear-weapon state, it has initiated a strategic dialogue process with France and the U.K. for the sake of nuclear deterrence. On February 21, 2025, Germany’s center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU), announced an expansion of nuclear protection in collaboration with London and Paris. Nevertheless, for credible deterrence, sooner or later, Germany can develop its indigenous nuclear weapons, which is not an easy task due to financial, technical and NPT barriers in terms of acquiring fissile material, weaponizing and testing a device and mating with delivery vehicles. To conclude, Berlin recognizes that it cannot rearm without the cooperation of like-minded European states on armament. Therefore, it is negotiating armament cooperation agreements with other European states.
—The writer is Prof at the School of Politics and IR, Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad.
