PAKISTAN is a federation – not a loose confederation. Pakistan is a federation – not four fiscal islands connected by one federal treasury. History tells us that a federation survives on four balances. First: rights and responsibilities. Second: revenue and expenditure. Third: autonomy and accountability. Fourth: provincial empowerment and national solvency.
Red alert: Pakistan has disturbed not just one, but all four balances. Result: Islamabad borrows. Provinces spend. Citizens pay. The federation weakens. 2010: After several in-camera sessions, the 18th Amendment to the Constitution of Pakistan was passed by the National Assembly. More than one-third of the Constitution was amended. Pakistan’s public debt then stood at Rs8.2 trillion.
2026: Islamabad has been borrowing for 16 years. Provinces have been spending for 16 years. Pakistan’s public debt now stands at Rs95 trillion — a net accumulation of roughly Rs87 trillion over those 16 years. Cold truth: Since 2010, Pakistan has added more debt than discipline. The post-2010 annual deficit average is 50 percent larger than the pre-2010 average. Debt has grown. Discipline has not. The federation has weakened.
A dangerous imbalance has emerged: the federation has become a borrowing machine. And the federation has weakened. Consider this: After Rs8 trillion in NFC transfers and Rs8 trillion in debt servicing, federal fiscal space is almost gone.
Yet the federation is still expected to defend the country at Rs2.5 trillion, pay pensions of Rs1 trillion, provide grants of Rs1.9 trillion, fund subsidies of Rs1.2 trillion, run the federal government at Rs1 trillion, finance development of Rs1.3 trillion, and maintain an emergency provision of Rs389 billion — with nothing left in the kitty.
Cold truth: Islamabad is not governing from revenue. Islamabad is governing from borrowing. A federation is not a cash-transfer machine–nowhere in the world. A federation is a responsibility-sharing arrangement. Provinces cannot be spending units without revenue responsibility.
The 18th Amendment has left Islamabad with the bills and the provinces with the cheques. The 18th Amendment has converted the federal government into a debt-servicing machine. The 18th Amendment has turned the federation into a cashier with an empty drawer. The 18th Amendment has turned the federal budget into a debt ledger. To be clear: this is not an argument against provincial autonomy. This is an argument against autonomy without accountability.
The reality: The citizen does not live inside the 18th Amendment. The citizen lives on a street, in a village, in a city. Here’s the hard truth: Power moved from Islamabad to Lahore, Karachi, Peshawar and Quetta. But power did not move far enough — to districts, tehsils, union councils and municipalities.
The reform path is clear. First, debt servicing and defence must be treated as national first charges. Second, provinces must contribute to these first charges in proportion to the NFC share they receive. Third, local governments must receive constitutionally protected fiscal space.
History tells us: A weak federation does not produce strong provinces. It produces a weak state.
Pakistan needs a new federal bargain-most definitely. Not a rollback of provincial autonomy. Not a return to centralisation. Not a war between Islamabad and the provinces. Pakistan needs a new federation in which every tier of government has power, resources and responsibility. Strip away the rhetoric: the centre is being starved. The federation is being weakened.
Surely, the choice is not center versus province – the real choice is responsibility versus drift. The Pakistani federation must be strengthened – by strengthening every tier; a solvent center, responsible provinces and empowered local governments.
The bottom line: a federation is not built by dividing money alone. It is built by sharing burdens, sharing power and sharing responsibility. Pakistan does not need a weaker province or a stronger centre. Pakistan needs a solvent federation — one in which every tier carries the flag, and every tier carries the bill.
—The writer is a journalist and
political analyst.
