FROM 7th to 10th May 2025, Indian political leadership’s Operation Sindoor against Pakistan met a disastrous fate as it proved fateful particularly for the Indian Air Force (IAF).
Within the first one hour, IAF lost its Frontline fighter jets including Rafale, SU-30, Mir-2000, Mig-29 and Unmanned Combat Aerial Vehicle (UCAV) and resultantly, not only IAF was grounded but PAF achieved air superiority for the remaining days of the conflict. Additionally, scores of IAF’s Main and Forward Air Bases were attacked, two of its S-400 Surface to Air Missile sites were neutralized and BrahMos storage sites were destroyed with virtually no losses to PAF.
The outcome sent shockwaves across the world. Internally, Indian leadership faced intriguing questions from the media, strategic community and the global audience and had to announce continuation of the Ops Sindoor as a face saving. Externally, the US Administration had to retreat from its initial stance of ‘a bilateral issue can be resolved mutually’ to brokering the ceasefire between India and Pakistan as it feared irrecoverable obliteration of the Indian war machine. In regards, events following the ceasefire were even more horrifying for the Indian leadership. Entire geopolitical set-up of South Asia was turned upside down. For India, military embarrassment was compounded by the geopolitical and geostrategic down sliding on the global canvas while Pakistan started to enjoy unprecedented global respect and relevance.
During the past six months, Indian political and military leadership feeling egoistically hurt, geopolitically embarrassed and militarily discredited, has time and again Saber Rattled to avenge the military defeat. With this geopolitical and geostrategic back ground in the hind side, let’s extrapolate the likely options available with India and the probable outcome of Ops Sindhoor-2.0, if materialized. First and foremost, though direct military conflict between the two nuclear armed countries is simply inconceivable as it promises Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) and multitier devastating affects across the globe; however, Indian leadership’s rationality-irrationality paradox may result the conflict as inevitable. Secondly, if materialized, the renewed possession of lethal conventional capabilities by both countries would result the conflict being short, intense and extremely destruction oriented.
Interestingly, the likely character of war would hinge upon non-contact warfare, with long-range vectors, electronic warfare, force multipliers and space and cyberspace domains taking center stage. Meanwhile, the introduction of long-range air-to-air, air-to-surface, surface-to-air and surface-to-surface stand-off weapons would blur the boundary between defensive and offensive operations and virtually render the international border meaningless. Although Precision Guided Munitions (PGMs) may reduce the possibilities of collateral damage to a minimum however, likely use of Artificial Intelligence (AI) based Lethal Autonomous Weapons (LAWs) may result in the massive destruction
Both sides are likely to aim at rendering decisive blows against each other right on the onset due to which initial few hours of the conflict would be crucial. Last but not the least, owing to attributes like speed, reach, flexibility, lethality and ubiquity, coupled with capability to be employed single handedly or in combination of other armed forces, air power would become the weapon of first choice for the respective countries. However, keeping in view the devastating experiences of February 2019 (Ops Swift Retort) and May 2025 (Marka e Haq), IAF may not be employed against the PAF as single force application.
At the lowest perceived rungs of the escalation ladder, India might look for a target of opportunity across Sir Creek area/adjoining coast line or across the line of control/international border so as to use it as the notion of victory. While, at the medium rungs, using the pretext of a false flag operation (on land or at sea), simultaneous strikes may be launched across sir creek area/adjoining coast line or across the line of control/international border using long range vectors and kamikaze drones. In a worst case of irrationality syndrome, India may launch flurry of long-range surface to surface missiles supported by kamikaze drones and land attack missiles with the likely targets being the main operating air bases, ground based surveillance means, command and control centers, fielded forces and military industrial complex. In order to justify blatant acts of war and aggression, India would make all possible attempts to hedge behind the phenomena of anti-terrorism and self defence.
No matter India chooses whichever Modus Operandi, Pakistan has the capabilities and resolve to match any aggression with its declared and time-tested Quid Pro Quo Plus strategy. Notwithstanding the possession of non-conventional capabilities vis-à-vis non declaration of no first use policy, Pakistan has time and again successfully restored deterrence and reestablished strategic stability in South Asia by employing conventional means only. Nevertheless, Indian incumbent leadership, in order to fetch trivial political gains, is playing with the fire and is bent upon igniting the nuclear flashpoint. Prime Minister Modi and his comrades are seemed to be prepared putting the lives of millions of innocent civilians in the line of fire. World community in general and the Indian leadership in particular are advised to not to mistake Pakistan’s deterrence as bluff and must initiate all possible measures to compel PM Modi to refrain from any misadventure before it is too late.
—The writer is a retired Air Officer from the PAF and currently serving at the DHA Suffa University (DSU), Karachi.
