THERE are still formidable challenges in the way of a comprehensive deal but Pakistan-brokered Confidence Building Measures (CBMs) announced by the United States and Iran raise prospects for the success of the proposed second round of direct talks between the warring parties. Iran’s decision to reopen the Strait of Hormuz for commercial ships following an announcement by the United States about a 10-day ceasefire has widely been hailed by the global community as the move helped ease pressure on oil prices that had started impacting almost all countries of the world.
It is an open secret that quiet but aggressive diplomacy by Pakistan made a difference, bringing the two countries closer to a broader understanding on issues involved but behind-the-scenes efforts continue to bridge differences on critical and thorny points. Despite security issues in a complicated environment, Chief of Defence Forces (CDF) and Chief of Army Staff (COAS) Field Marshal Syed Asim Munir dashed to Tehran to have frank and candid discussions with both civilian and military leadership of the country on ways to de-escalate the conflict and move towards durable peace. It was at the instance of Pakistan that the United States arranged a temporary ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, a development that strengthened the hands of the CDF to convince Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. This sent positive signals across the global markets with oil plunging over 10% as war-risk premium evaporated and stocks rallied across US and Europe. Buoyed by prospects of a deal, President Trump thanked “fantastic” Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Field Marshal and Chief of Defence Forces (CDF) General Asim Munir for brokering the negotiations. The celebratory tone continued with a series of shout-outs to mediator Pakistan and Gulf allies. Welcoming remarks of President Trump, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif lauded him for his leadership leading to a temporary ceasefire in Lebanon.
It may be pointed out that understandably the reopening of Strait of Hormuz by Iran is conditional — meant for duration of ceasefire and hostile military vessels will not be allowed to pass through the waterway. Importantly, spokesman of the Iranian National Security Committee said Tehran will not impose fees on passage of ships through the strait in a traditional manner but passage will be exclusively through coordination with Iranian authorities. As per Iran’s Defence Ministry the current situation in the strait is “temporary” and the waterway could be closed again if the situation changes in Lebanon, which remains a possibility given the mischievous conduct of Israel. This means Iran will continue to have leverage vis-à-vis navigation through Hormuz and on the other hand the United States has announced it will persist with its blockade of Iranian ports, which is also an indirect violation of the ceasefire understanding between the two countries. Iran also perceives, and rightly so, its nuclear programme and the stockpiles of enriched Uranium as issues of sovereignty. Different proposals have been floated by the two sides as well as mediators and a middle way can be found but premature leakages and remarks vitiate the environment and make the task of mediators difficult. President Trump has claimed that Iran has agreed to suspend its nuclear programme indefinitely, enriched Uranium will be transferred to the US and Iran will not receive any frozen funds from the United States despite remarks made on the contrary by his vice President. Iranian officials say significant gaps remain over nuclear terms, sanctions relief and ceasefire, hoping a preliminary agreement could be reached in coming days with Pakistan’s efforts. In this backdrop, it is reasonable to expect a limited accord in the next round of talks in Islamabad but a comprehensive agreement will need more time to allow the dust to settle-down and sort out details by their technical experts.
