THE risk of termination of the current ceasefire and recommencement of war persists between the nuclear-armed India and Pakistan.
Last month, during a four-day military standoff, a period of heightened military tension and potential conflict, the two sides deployed missiles, drones and fighter jets in their heartlands, which were untouched since the 1971 war and disputed territory of Kashmir and exchanged massive artillery fire at the Line of Control. Such a military action germinates the genuine fears of nuclear escalation. The potential use of nuclear weapons has become an escalating risk due to the horizontal and vertical escalatory dangerous trends in previous conflicts between India and Pakistan. The risk of a limited war escalating into a full-scale war was higher in the four-day war than in the earlier conflicts since Kargil in 1999. Admittedly, nuclear deterrence was not broken but undeniably shaken due to the moving up the escalation ladder and assertive military postures of India and Pakistan.
Interstingly, both combatants declared victory and celebrated their achievements. The media xenophobia continues and the public mood remains euphoric in India and Pakistan. They claimed their military actions were measured, non-escalatory, proportionate and responsible. New Delhi pronounced the ‘new normal’ or Modi doctrine grounded on an offensive ‘surgical strike stratagem’ to deal with Pakistan. At the same time, Islamabad expressed its resolve to respond in kind to every aggressive action, particularly surgical strikes and any violation of the Indus Waters Treaty. Since the post-Pulwama military standoff in 2019, Pakistani armed forces have gained more confidence to inflict unbearable costs on the Indian use of force—like downing six Indian fighter jets, including 3 Rafael and destroying S-400 batteries and Brahmous missiles site. Thus quashing India’s compellence strategy, exposing the limits of the utility of force and repealing its push for escalation dominance in a conflict.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s combative rhetoric and the BJP’s electioneering strategy in states strengthened hawkish views in India and Pakistan. Premier Modi said it’s just a “pause”. Defence Minister Rajnath Singh added, “Operation Sindoor is not over yet. Whatever happened was just a trailer. When the right time comes, we will show the full picture to the world.” Their militaristic mindset and provocative statements and determination to derail the IWT may cause a spiral out of control and lead to another conflict escalation between India and Pakistan. India’s Home Minister Amit Shah reiterated on June 21, 2025 that New Delhi will never restore the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) with Islamabad. BJP leadership is selling an idea to the voters that the water flowing to Pakistan will be diverted for internal use. He said, “We will take water that was flowing from Pakistan to Rajasthan by constructing a canal. Pakistan will be starved of water that it has been getting unjustifiably.” Responding to Amit’s statement, Pakistan Foreign Office spokesperson Shafqat Ali Khan said, “For its part, Pakistan remains firmly committed to the treaty and will take all necessary measures to protect its legitimate rights and entitlements under it.”
Islamabad maintains a clear stance that violating IWT and diverting river water flowing to Pakistan will be considered “an act of war.” Former Foreign Minister and PPP Chairman Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari had warned that if India refused to honour the IWT, “we will fight another war and take all six rivers. We know how to defend our rivers.” Although the Pakistani leadership appears confident in defending the country, it is aware of the potential for inadvertent escalation of the limited war. On May 30, General Sahir Shamshad Mirza, Pakistan’s Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee, warned, “This (conflict) lowers the threshold between two countries who are contiguous nuclear powers…in the future, it will not be restricted to the disputed territory. It would come down to (the) whole of India and (the) whole of Pakistan.” Precisely, the next crisis between India and Pakistan will be more dangerous.
The United States played a critical role in preventing the escalation of a war between India and Pakistan. President Donald Trump claimed that he stopped a nuclear conflict. The Pakistani ruling elite openly appreciates President Donald Trump’s role in de-escalating the conflict and has announced its intention to recommend him for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize. The Indian ruling elite is shy to admit that the Trump Administration had helped in brokering a ceasefire between India and Pakistan on May 10. New Delhi downplayed the role of the third party. On June 17, 2025, India’s Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri claimed that Prime Minister Modi told President Trump during a phone call between the two leaders that New Delhi would never accept third-party mediation with Pakistan on the issue of Kashmir. He is unprepared to heed Trump’s advice about promoting bilateral trade and investment instead of fighting each other. Accepting a third-party role in resolving bilateral conflicts between India and Pakistan is viewed as a suicidal political choice for Modi and his cohort in the prevalent Indian polity.
The ceasefire remains fragile because it does not address any of the underlying grievances in the bilateral relationship. Despite Islamabad’s olive branch, New Delhi stubbornly refused to restart the dialogue process aimed at normalizing the situation. To appease the hawkish lobby in the country, Pakistani leaders are attempting to strike a balance between their demand for dialogue and sustainable peace while ensuring that the sovereignty of the state is preserved at all costs. The absence of dialogue and the prevalence of combative rhetoric are not just risks, but they are actively contributing to the potential termination of the ceasefire. The urgency of the situation demands immediate and constructive dialogue to discuss objectively all outstanding issues between India and Pakistan
—The writer is Prof at the School of Politics and IR, Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad.
