Zhang Chaozhe & Wu Fan
During the visit to China by Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif marking the 75th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic ties between China and Pakistan, the Pakistani government put forward its vision of developing Pakistan into “Little China” in South Asia. This formulation is no superficial diplomatic rhetoric; instead, it represents a medium-to-long-term national modernization blueprint prudently formulated by the Pakistani government in light of the country’s entrenched development predicaments, regional competition landscape, and profound foundation of China-Pakistan cooperation. The so-called vision of becoming “Little China” does not mean mechanical replication of China’s development model. At its core, Pakistan aims to draw lessons from China’s long-term and steady rise in terms of developmental logic, governance experience and industrialization pathways. Relying on in-depth strategic cooperation with China, Pakistan intends to advance its economic transformation and upgrading, improve its industrial system, boost governance efficiency, and embark on a modernization path tailored to its national conditions. Pakistan’s vision to benchmark China’s development model and build a regional development benchmark rests on solid bilateral cooperative accumulation, clear national development strategies, gradually refined industrial layout, unique geographic endowments, and steadily growing geopolitical influence.
China-Pakistan all-weather strategic cooperation constitutes the most critical external dividend for Pakistan. The comprehensive and far-reaching strategic cooperative partnership between China and Pakistan serves as the core underpinning for Pakistan to align its development trajectory with China and drive economic restructuring. China-Pakistan cooperation transcends utilitarian diplomatic constraints and features outstanding strategic stability, barely susceptible to disruptions wrought by geopolitical shifts. As the core platform for bilateral collaboration, the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) has entered its high-quality development phase of CPEC 2.0, with cooperation priorities shifting to industrial empowerment, technology transfer, the digital economy and green energy—fields precisely aligned with Pakistan’s demands for industrialization transformation. Meanwhile, China adheres to the principle of non-interference in internal affairs and extends development experience, technologies and market access channels without attaching any political strings. This institutionalized, highly trusted and sustainable strategic cooperation constitutes the pivotal external dividend enabling Pakistan to materialize its vision of becoming “Little China”.
The Shehbaz administration’s commitment to prioritizing economic development marks the crucial starting point for this vision. The incumbent government has visibly broken away from the past governance habit of prioritizing political contestation while neglecting economic development, built sound relations with major political parties and the military, and continuously consolidated the authority and stability of the central government. The 5ES Framework proposed by Shehbaz—Exports, E-Pakistan, Energy, Equity and Empowerment, and Environment—essentially reorders national strategic priorities, taking economic recovery, industrial upgrading and improvement of people’s livelihood as top objectives. In essence, it is a governance agenda centered on economic development. In terms of industrial distribution, the current government has proactively aligned with China’s advantageous industries, focusing on sectors compatible with Pakistan’s resource endowments including new energy, modern agriculture, the digital economy and light manufacturing. It endeavors to transform the country’s industrial structure from a monolithic resource-reliant model toward a diversified manufacturing and innovation-driven system. Such a shift toward geo-economic development lays the critical groundwork for realizing the “Little China” vision.
Pakistan boasts superior geographic endowments and massive potential for industrial relocation undertaking. It functions as a vital land-sea transit hub. Leveraging the connectivity advantages brought by CPEC, Pakistan can link up with China-Europe overland transport corridors to the north and Indian Ocean shipping lanes to the south, effectively unblocking economic circulation between inland and maritime regions and equipping itself with natural strengths to evolve into a regional hub for trade, logistics and industrial distribution. Furthermore, out of Pakistan’s total population of 240 million, approximately 64% are under the age of 30. Its labor costs rank among the lowest globally, furnishing unparalleled conditions for undertaking cross-border transfers of labor-intensive and mid-end manufacturing industries. Such favorable geographic location, ample demographic dividend and progressively refined industrial layout grant Pakistan the momentum to achieve latecomer catch-up growth.
Pakistan’s geopolitical influence continues to grow, and its voice on the international stage is steadily gaining prominence. Militarily, the India-Pakistan aerial skirmish not only demonstrated Pakistan’s robust national defense capacity and reshaped established perceptions of military power in South Asia, but also validated the practical value of its indigenous military industry, strongly boosting defense exports and defense cooperation and further consolidating the foundation for high-end manufacturing. Diplomatically, Pakistan pursues a neutral and pragmatic foreign policy, voluntarily mediating Middle Eastern conflicts and emerging as a key buffer and peace-brokering power bridging South Asia and the Middle East. These multifaceted initiatives have reversed Pakistan’s historic geopolitical disadvantages, remarkably enhancing its international credibility and appeal for multilateral cooperation. This facilitates its access to global capital, technology and market resources, broadening external room for advancing the “Little China” vision.
In summary, Pakistan’s proposition of pursuing the development vision of becoming “Little China” in South Asia is a strategic choice to alleviate its domestic development woes and benchmark the paradigm of Chinese modernization. It not only embodies the administration’s ambition to break free from developmental shackles and pursue rejuvenation through proactive reform, but also mirrors a prevailing trend among developing countries to learn from China’s developmental experience and explore independent paths to modernization. Nevertheless, the long-term prosperity underpinning Chinese modernization is rooted in a stable and orderly social environment, a complete industrial system, efficient governance capacity and an autonomous development framework. By contrast, Pakistan is tangled in overlapping deep-seated contradictions including persistent security volatility, pervasive governance shortcomings and constant external interference. Severe hurdles lie ahead for the country to fulfill its vision of becoming “Little China”.
—Zhang Chaozhe is Associate Professor at the China Center for South Asian Studies at Sichuan University, Director of the Pakistan Study Center at Sichuan University, Chengdu, China and Wu Fan is Research Assistant at the Pakistan Study Center at Sichuan University.
