DURING the second day of the ongoing BRICS Summit in Johannesburg, South Africa the policy makers remarkably achieved one of the biggest goals by inviting Saudi Arabia, Iran, UAE, Egypt, Argentina and Ethiopia in the group which will hopefully further enhance its strategic orientation, socio-economic potential, financial integration, human capital, industrial cooperation, climate change and geopolitical significance in the days to come. It is predicted that inclusion of Saudi Arabia, Iran, Egypt and UAE would further create balance in the world energy markets (oil & gas) along with security in regional as well as food products. Some western media outlets purposefully termed it “energy centric”.
According to various published reports the current share of the BRICS in global oil production is 43% which will be further increased up to 46-50% and their oil intake share will jump from 27% to 36% which means larger role of the BRICS at international stage even western media termed it “BRICS Plus OPEC” group after the inclusion of the six new countries. The published report of the World Bank rightly highlights the huge and diversified potential of the existing BRICS mechanism representing 26% of the global GDP, 46% of the world’s population, and 16% of the global FDI net inflows in 2022 which will be further strengthened in terms of global GDP (26 to 29%), FDIs (16 to 20%), total merchandise exports (20 to 25%) and last but not least, population (41 to 46%, expanded BRICS has now population of 3.7 billion). Moreover, the BRICS consists of US$56.65 trillion (32.5% of global GDP PPP), and more than US$4.46 trillion in combined foreign reserves, opening new window of opportunities for the six new countries for immense socio-economic integration, greater financial integration and sustainable international settlements. Similarly, their share in global services trade will increase to 15% from 12 and their share in the global forex reserves will also be increased.
The current five BRICS countries comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa are also influential members of leading international organizations and agencies, including the UN, the G20, the World Bank and the IMF, with 14% of voting rights in the World Bank and 15% of quota share in the IMF which would be further consolidated after the inclusion of new six countries. The inclusion of Saudi Arabia, UAE, Egypt and Iran would further strengthen diplomatic ties, socio-economic relations and political consultations between the BRICS and Muslim World in the future, creating better civilizational understanding and interfaith harmony useful for greater human progress, prosperity and survival.
Unfortunately, the western media labelled the expansion as “Middle East centric” because out of six countries five belong to Muslim countries showing a drastic change in regional as well as international geo-economics and geo-politics gradually shifting towards Global South ensuring more free, fair, open and transparent formation of multi-polar world providing numerous socio-economic, geopolitical and geostrategic opportunities for the participating countries as well as the world community. Argentina is one of the biggest producers of Lithium which will be useful for the collective efforts of the BRICS in the development of “Green Energies” in the days to come. Furthermore currently its government is passing through a difficult time in term of budgetary deficits and securing of loans from the IMF which would have an alternative source of financial assistance from the BRICS development bank after its inclusion in it.
Inclusion of Egypt having substantial gas deposits and an ideal stimulator of greater regional connectivity would play an important role in the easy and smooth supplies of energy within the framework of the BRICS grouping. Its huge tourism, culture and human capital would further foster diversification drives of the respective economies in the group. Its inclusion in the BRICS would be useful for its economy, industry, real estate, climate change and above all innovation in the days to come.
Furthermore, the addition of Ethiopia, which has been dubbed as one of the emerging and fast growing economies in Africa, would also be a value addition for the global expansion of the BRICS in terms of food security and agriculture cooperation. The natural minerals and raw material of Ethiopia would have the potential to further smooth industrial growth in BRICS.
Likewise, the presence of Iran is one of the biggest diplomatic achievements of the BRICS and Iran’s alike. Its huge energy reservoirs (oil & gas) would be beneficial for the BRICS in the days to come. Its huge manufacturing infrastructure and regional connectivity with Central Asia and Africa would be a supplemental value addition for the BRICS mechanism in the future.
Saudi Arabia is the only country among the newly inducted countries which has an economy exceeding to US$ trillion benchmark. It is the 2nd largest producer of oil after Russia which would be supportive for peaceful energy pursuits of the group. Therefore, its special place in the entire Muslim world and key role in OIC and the Arab League would be mutually useful for both in the days ahead. Its Sovereign Wealth Fund would provide useful financial assistance and alternative source of investment for all the member countries of the BRICS but it should not be treated as “Cash Cow” for the member countries.
Additionally, the annual reports of the World Economic Forums and global development indexes clearly highlight the potential of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) the second largest economy in the GCC and the most advanced country in the MENA in terms of digitalization, renewables, good governance and infrastructure development which would be further consolidated and advanced after its inclusion in the BRICS. President Xi Jinping is absolutely right to term the expansion as “historic” showing its strategic significance and socio-economic potential. In summary, the expansion of BRICS is a historic and giant step towards formation of the Global South which does not have any special geopolitical agenda against anybody.
—The writer is Executive Director, Centre for South Asia & International Studies, Islamabad, regional expert China, BRI & CPEC & senior analyst, world affairs, Pakistan Observer.
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