CLIMATE change refers to long-term changes in weather patterns on Earth.
The primary cause of recent climate change is the increase in greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide and methane, in the atmosphere, resulting from the combustion of fossil fuels. These gases trap heat from the sun, causing the Earth’s temperature to rise—a process commonly referred to as global warming. Although Pakistan contributes only about 0.88% of the world’s greenhouse gas emissions, it is the fifth most vulnerable country to climate change. Pakistan has witnessed two devastating floods in 2022 and 2025. A World Bank report highlighted that the 2022 floods caused over 1,700 deaths and 12,000 injuries, besides economic losses exceeding USD 40 billion. The devastation of the 2025 floods, driven by unprecedented rainfall, cloudbursts, urban flooding and glacial lake downpours, has claimed more than 1,000 lives and affected nearly 7 million people since June 2025. Monsoon 2025 witnessed extraordinary havoc, with extreme rainfall, cloudbursts, urban flooding and glacial lake outbursts.
Cloudbursts were more frequent and destructive in northern parts of the country. These intense, localized rainstorms often lead to devastating flash floods, landslides and loss of lives and property. A cloudburst is a sudden, very heavy rainfall that occurs over a small area in a short period. The rain intensity is so high that it overwhelms natural and man-made drainage systems, leading to flash flooding. In many cases, the affected area is extremely localized, with nearby regions receiving little or no rain. Experts believe climate change is responsible for this phenomenon. Illegal and unplanned constructions on riverbanks and natural water passages have significantly contributed to urban flooding. Cities like Islamabad, Karachi and Lahore were severely affected by devastation unleashed by urban flooding. Due to rising temperatures, glaciers in Pakistan’s northern mountain ranges—the Hindu Kush, Himalayas and Karakoram—are melting rapidly. A total of 3,044 glacial lakes have developed in Gilgit-Baltistan (GB) and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP). Of these, 33 glacial lakes have been assessed as prone to hazardous glacial lake outburst flooding (GLOF).
To counter challenges emanating from climate change hazards and to monitor urban planning for flooding, a comprehensive Early Warning System (EWS) is paramount. Early warning systems are crucial for planning and preparedness activities. Technology, particularly Artificial Intelligence (AI), plays a pivotal role in enhancing EWSs for disasters, whether man-made or natural. AI algorithms analyze extensive datasets from various sources—such as satellite imagery, weather data and seismic activity—to deliver more precise and nearly real-time warnings for events like earthquakes, tsunamis and floods. Recent developments in Generative AI and the emergence of Large Language Models (LLMs) are catalysts for proactive responses to climate hazards, impending disasters and coordinated mitigation efforts. Agentic AI systems, which operate autonomously, are ideal for delivering timely and precise warnings for events like earthquakes, tsunamis and floods.
The framework is based on a Multi-Agent AI system. Initially, three main agents are envisaged. The Triage Agent acts as a Climate Sentinel, passing information to the Disaster Management Agent, which issues advisories and recommends requisite actions to Field Agents. The Field Agents are the operational units that autonomously take actions based on information shared by the Disaster Management Agent. The Climate Sentinel collects data from multiple sources using IoT sensors and satellites. This data includes weather warnings, temperature readings, rainfall and flood warnings, precipitation for detecting cloudbursts and environmental data such as the Air Quality Index (AQI). The agent also monitors seismic data for early earthquake detection.
The Disaster Management Agent is responsible for issuing advisories and disseminating information to relevant stakeholders. Upon receiving warnings from the Climate Sentinel, this agent also coordinates relief efforts to mitigate disasters. Field Agents, upon receiving advisories, take actions such as relocating people and safeguarding livelihoods, as well as implementing preventive measures to reduce or prevent disaster effects. Countries like Pakistan face severe challenges due to climate change. Despite contributing less than one percent to global fossil fuel emissions, Pakistan remains highly vulnerable. Recent monsoons witnessed unprecedented floods driven by climate change, compounded by man-made complications such as illegal constructions on waterways in cities, causing urban flooding. Early warning systems augmented by AI offer a robust solution. AI agents can detect multiple hazards from diverse sources, extract key insights and infer relevant information to support timely, autonomous actions. Multi-Agent AI systems can disseminate advisories and warnings efficiently, while also triggering immediate responses to prevent or reduce disaster impacts.
—The writer occasionally contributes to the national press.
