Usama Qazzafi
The United Nations Security Council’s latest report on Afghanistan, S/2025/796, offers a stark assessment four years after the Taliban’s return: Afghanistan is governed, but not reconciled.
While the Taliban have consolidated nationwide control and suppressed overt insurgency, fundamental political, security, humanitarian and regional challenges remain unresolved, leaving the country superficially stable yet structurally fragile.
The report notes measurable developments under Taliban rule, including a sharp drop in poppy cultivation. UN data shows opium cultivation down over 95 percent from its 2022 peak, with production falling 32 percent year-on-year in 2025. Yet the UN warns that Afghanistan’s narcotics economy persists, shifting toward methamphetamine and other synthetics. Rising meth seizures highlight a more clandestine and potentially dangerous narco-economy, even as farmers face income losses and unrest from eradication campaigns.
On security, Taliban claims that Afghan soil is free of terrorist groups are “not credible.” Over 20 terrorist organizations remain active, including ISIL-K, Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), Al-Qaida, ETIM/TIP and Jamaat Ansarullah. ISIL-K, with around 2,000 fighters, increasingly uses cryptocurrency, encrypted communications, AI-assisted propaganda and recruits minors. TTP is identified as the main source of cross-border instability, with 6,000 fighters in eastern provinces conducting over 600 attacks in Pakistan in 2025, targeting military-linked economic assets and Chinese interests. The UN cites Afghan logistical and financial support for TTP, fuelling regional tensions and repeated border closures. Pakistan is framed as a directly affected stakeholder rather than a protagonist in Afghanistan’s conflict.
Politically, Taliban governance is highly centralized and exclusionary. Supreme Leader Hibatullah Akhundzada wields absolute authority from Kandahar, with no public consultation or accountability. Governance prioritizes regime cohesion over effectiveness. Of 28 foreign missions and international organizations in Kabul and 42 Taliban offices abroad, only Russia formally recognizes the government. In July 2025, the ICC issued arrest warrants for Akhundzada and the de facto Chief Justice for crimes against humanity related to gender-based persecution.
Human rights, especially for women and girls, remain among the world’s worst. Eight out of ten Afghan women are barred from education, employment and vocational training, widening gender gaps and costing the economy over $1 billion annually. Media repression has intensified, including outlet closures, arbitrary detentions and extrajudicial killings of former security personnel.
Economically, Afghanistan is “resilient but weak.” GDP fell 6.5 percent in the first half of 2025, unemployment stands at 75 percent and over 90 percent live below the poverty line. More than 4.5 million forced returns since late 2023 have strained services, while border closures with Pakistan cost roughly $1 million daily.
The UN concludes: stability through control is not the same as peace through resolution. Without verifiable action on terrorism, inclusive governance, human rights and regional cooperation, Afghanistan’s apparent calm remains fragile, with consequences extending well beyond its borders.
—The writer is contributing columnist.
