M Ziauddin
A formidable bloc of three Muslim states—Turkey, Pakistan and Iran— is coming up fast in
the region to meet the challenges of the aftermath of the US finally leaving Afghanistan. All three have the significant military capacity and economic potential.
Azerbaijan is likely to join the bloc later, merging it with Central Asia. Turkish foreign minister Kavsuglu’s visit to Pakistan January 12 to 13 is said to have been the key step towards the formation of such an alliance. During this visit the two sides are said to have discussed a “road map” consisting of 71 points, the gist of which is: Turkey and Pakistan will develop cooperation in the defence industry.
The China-Iranian investment deal of up to $400 billion, a move on a global game board, is being seen as the decisive factor nudging Iran into what seems to be a defensive bloc supported by China in its own regional geopolitical and geo-economic interests. Chinese planners believe The Belt and Road Initiative will provide the economic foundation for the bloc and cast China as a pre-eminent power from the Indian Ocean to the Black Sea.
Trump’s declared intention to remove American boots from the region’s ground is said to have left the regional states under its protective umbrella to fend for themselves against Iran and Turkey, the two countries which in the opinion of the former posed relatively a more dangerous existential threat than Israel.
The regional states opposing this emerging bloc of Muslim countries have scant economic potential beyond hydrocarbons and a rag-tag military in contrast to Iran’s two of the world’s best electrical engineering schools and a formidable weapons development capacity while Turkey has a dozen universities that train engineers to global standards and though Pakistan’s level of development is lower, it has 220 million people and a huge talent pool from which to draw. The future of the American camp followers in the region, therefore, does not look so upbeat with India especially threatened with isolation.
Indeed, the three countries — Turkey, Iran and Pakistan — plus Azerbaijan, a likely addition to the Chinese supported bloc, have among them 400 million people, as many as the whole of the opposing countries in the region but with far higher levels of economic development and education.
A rogue NATO member that riled the United States by purchasing Russian air defence systems, Turkey remains notionally part of the Western alliance. China has offered the Turks and Iranians a grand bargain which can provide the two with infrastructure, technology and financing to restore their ailing economies.
During 2020, Turkey’s central bank drew on a $400 million swap line with the People’s Bank of China, and for the first time ever Turkish importers paid for Chinese goods in RMB. It sold a 48% stake in its Kumport container terminal to a Chinese company and sold the Yavuz Sultan Selim Bridge for $688 million to a Chinese group.
More important to Turkey in the long term is China’s Belt and Road Initiative, which has built direct rail links between Turkey and China and promises to link Turkey to China’s economic growth. The China route runs from Turkey’s easternmost city Kars to the Georgian capital Tbilisi and then to Azerbaijan’s capital Baku. A number of rail or sea/rail combinations are under consideration linking Turkey to Central Asia and thence to East Asia. In addition to bilateral meetings in the form of Turkey-Pakistan, a tripartite meeting of foreign ministers of Turkey, Azerbaijan and Pakistan is expected to be held in Pakistan soon.
Azerbaijan is participating in the Turkey-Pakistan plan, which is therefore increasingly being drawn into Turkish strategy and is moving away from Russia. The Turkish side pointed out: These relations have driven Azerbaijan further and further away from Russia. With the emergence of the Nakhichivan’s corridor along the Iranian border, Turkey has gained access to the Caspian Sea. After successful negotiations in Islamabad, Turkey would be able to bypass Suez [through a combination of rail and roll on-roll off shipping]. Turkey is considering building a railway to Central Asia and China in Pakistan.
Turkey’s Erdogan has vociferously supported Pakistan’s claims against India in Kashmir last year, comparing the “struggle of Kashmiris” to the Ottoman Empire’s fight against the Allies during World War I. Indian-Turkish relations deteriorated further after the leak of dubious Indian intelligence reports claiming that Turkey was secretly agitating among India’s Muslim majority, and had become “the hub of anti-India activities” alongside Pakistan. Iran recently expressed support for the Libyan government supported by Turkey, while Ankara expressed opposition to US sanctions against Tehran. The emerging four-country bloc supported by China is said to have a number of strategic advantages in the opinion of Spengler of Asia Times (A Pax Sinica takes shape in the Middle East, published on February 4, 2021):
“First, it would lock 400 million people into China’s Eurasian infrastructure program and technology outreach; Second, it would establish a contiguous territory of friendly countries stretching from the Indian Ocean to the Mediterranean; Third, it would isolate America’s allies in the region and weaken a prospective ally, India; Fourth, it would wrong-foot the United States and give China strategic leverage against American attempts to contain it. Meanwhile, a bipartisan report submitted to the US Congress claims that there’s an understanding between China and Pakistan on how to protect their interests in Afghanistan after the US leaves the war torn country and Islamabad is said to enjoy a leading role in this strategy.
Explaining the change in the US attitude towards Afghanistan which led to its dialogue with the Taliban and the signing of the peace accord last year, the report argues that “the Taliban are not an international terrorist organization, and there is no evidence that they have any intention to attack the United States.” The report notes that while Islamabad has always tried to maintain a close relationship with the United States, this did not prevent it from maintaining ties with the Taliban as well.
According to this report, an unstable Afghanistan risks destabilizing the entire region, particularly by “exacerbating the rivalry between India and Pakistan, two nuclear-armed powers.” The report points out that Afghanistan sits in a dangerous region as “three of its six immediate neighbours (China, Pakistan, and Iran) are actual or potential nuclear powers. Two other regional powers, Russia and India, also possess nuclear weapons.”
— The writer is a veteran journalist and a former editor based in Islamabad.
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