LAHORE – Punjab and Sindh are bracing for a significant irrigation-water shortage during the ongoing Rabi season, with supplies projected to fall 22 per cent short of requirements, potentially affecting wheat production and other winter crops.
The Indus River System Authority (IRSA) has projected a 22 per cent water deficit for the six-month Rabi season, spanning October 1, 2026, to March 31, 2027. The assessment is based on anticipated river inflows of 21.268 million acre-feet against estimated provincial water requirements and withdrawals of 29.183 million acre-feet.
The shortfall has heightened concerns among farmers, particularly in Punjab and Sindh, where irrigation supplies are crucial for cultivating wheat, the country’s primary winter crop. Other crops that could face water-related challenges include tobacco, barley, mustard, gram, lentils, potatoes, onions and tomatoes.
Meanwhile, the country’s three major water reservoirs — Tarbela, Mangla and Chashma — have a combined usable storage of 6.167 million acre-feet, according to the latest data released by the Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA).
Tarbela Reservoir’s water level has reached 1,488.93 feet, with 2.456 million acre-feet of water in storage. The Indus River’s inflow at the reservoir stands at 25,600 cusecs, while its outflow is recorded at 45,000 cusecs.
At Mangla, the water level is 1,186.90 feet, with stored water amounting to 3.462 million acre-feet. The Jhelum River is flowing into the reservoir at 3,800 cusecs, while the outflow has been recorded at 33,000 cusecs.
Chashma Reservoir has a water level of 647.80 feet, with 249,000 acre-feet of usable water available. The Indus River’s inflow at Chashma Barrage stands at 113,200 cusecs, compared with an outflow of 54,000 cusecs.
At Head Marala, the Chenab River’s inflow is 7,400 cusecs, while the outflow is 2,000 cusecs. Both the inflow and outflow of the Kabul River at Nowshera have been recorded at 8,200 cusecs.
A WAPDA spokesperson explained that the reported inflow and outflow figures for the Indus at Tarbela and Chashma, the Jhelum at Mangla and the Kabul at Nowshera represent average discharge measurements over 24 hours. Readings for Head Marala and other monitoring locations, however, are based on measurements taken at 6am on the reporting day.
The anticipated water deficit could place additional pressure on the agriculture sector as wheat sowing and crop development continue across the country’s major farming regions. Farmers facing inadequate canal supplies may have to rely more heavily on groundwater, increasing irrigation expenses due to higher pumping costs.
The potential impact on agricultural output has also been highlighted in the Food Security Outlook released by FEWS NET for October 2026 to May 2027.
The assessment anticipates that Pakistan’s overall Rabi wheat harvest will remain close to the seasonal average, supported partly by expectations of average to above-average winter rainfall. However, continued irrigation constraints, limited groundwater availability and elevated agricultural input and fuel prices could restrict production, particularly in Punjab and Sindh.
