AS the 31st Conference of the Parties (COP31) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change opened in Antalya, Türkiye, on 9 November 2026, the world once again faced a familiar question: how long can climate commitments remain promises on paper while vulnerable countries continue to pay the price for a crisis they contributed relatively little to create? Running until 20 November, Murat Kurum serves as the President, while Australia’s Climate Change and Energy Minister, Chris Bowen, leads the negotiations at the conference.
Amid rising global temperatures, geopolitical tensions and widening climate-finance gaps, Pakistan has a story that cannot be overlooked. For the country, COP31 is an opportunity to make the world listen, demand climate justice and secure a more resilient future for its people. Pakistan’s case rests on a stark contradiction. The country contributes less than one per cent of global greenhouse gas emissions and about 0.4 percent of historical emissions, yet remains among the countries most vulnerable to climate change. The question Pakistan must pose at COP31 is straightforward: how can countries with limited responsibility for global emissions be expected to bear the escalating costs of a crisis they did little to create?
At the heart of this argument lies Pakistan’s increasingly precarious water security. Climate change is intensifying rainfall variability, altering snow and glacier dynamics and placing additional pressure on an already stressed Indus Basin. However, Pakistan’s water crisis is not due to climate change alone. Population growth, inefficient irrigation, inadequate storage, groundwater depletion, water pollution and fragmented governance have further compounded the problem. Annual per capita water availability has fallen below 1,000 cubic metres, placing Pakistan below the internationally recognized threshold of water scarcity. This is despite the country receiving an average of 138.4 million acre-feet (MAF) of water annually through its river systems. The combined live storage capacity of Tarbela, Mangla and Chashma, however, stands at approximately 13.44 MAF. Meanwhile, the Indus Basin Irrigation System, with a canal network extending nearly 64,000 kilometres and irrigating approximately 47 million acres, remains the backbone of national food security. The contrast between substantial seasonal river flows and limited storage capacity exposes a fundamental weakness in Pakistan’s water management.
Pakistan’s case at Antalya must therefore extend beyond vulnerability and moral arguments to the question of financing. Its Third Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC 3.0), submitted in September 2025, sets a voluntary target to reduce projected greenhouse gas emissions by up to 50 percent by 2035. Of this, 17 percent is unconditional and depends on domestic resources and policy measures, while the remaining 33 percent is conditional upon adequate international financial support, technology transfer and capacity-building. The estimated investment requirement stands at US$565.7 billion. This figure reflects the scale of investment required to fulfill Pakistan’s climate ambitions and highlights the country’s dependence on international support. The Loss and Damage Fund presents another critical test of global climate solidarity. Pakistan played an important diplomatic role in advancing its establishment at COP27 following the devastating 2022 floods. However, securing an international financing mechanism and receiving actual financial assistance are two very different achievements.
Pakistan’s participation at COP31 extends beyond diplomatic statements. According to reports on the country’s preparations for the summit, Pakistan has submitted two proposals worth a combined US$39.9 million, although the mechanism has yet to disburse any funding. The Ministry of Climate Change’s COP31 platform has also identified 56 engagements at the Pakistan Pavilion, involving federal and provincial institutions and more than 30 partners. This implementation-focused approach offers an opportunity to showcase investment-ready projects in renewable energy, agriculture, ecosystem restoration and climate-resilient infrastructure. Pakistan must now push for transparent, simplified and timely financing arrangements that allow vulnerable communities to receive support before recovery becomes another prolonged cycle of debt and reconstruction.
Pakistan must deliver a clear message at COP31. Climate justice cannot remain a promise; it must translate into action. Water security, adaptation finance and loss and damage must take centre stage in its negotiating priorities. The true test of this summit will not be the number of speeches delivered, declarations adopted or pledges announced. It will be what happens when the conference ends. Will these promises reach the flood-hit villages, the thirsty fields and the communities still struggling to rebuild their lives? For Pakistan, the stakes could hardly be higher. The world must move beyond promises before another climate disaster writes the next chapter of Pakistan’s story.
—The writer is the COO of Bondh-e-Shams, a non-profit organization working to provide clean water using solar-powered technology.
