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Sunday, November 1, 2026

The climate dividend of digital exports

Salman Ali Rana1 and Dr Shahzad Kouser

PAKISTAN’S freelance services exports surged from $214 million in FY2020 to $1.76 billion in FY2026, creating new opportunities for employment and foreign exchange. While digital exports may have a smaller environmental footprint than traditional activities, they still consume energy and resources. Cleaner technology and environmental monitoring could help realize their climate dividend.

A website designer working from home in Rawalpindi can earn foreign exchange without travelling daily to an office in Islamabad. No container of merchandise leaves Karachi Port, and no physical product needs to cross an international border. The essential inputs are skills, a laptop, electricity and an internet connection.

Now multiply this opportunity across Pakistan’s expanding freelance workforce. According to the State Bank of Pakistan, exports of freelance services increased from $214 million in FY2020 to $1.76 billion in FY2026, registering an impressive compound annual growth rate of 42 per cent. The wider ICT export sector reached approximately $4.6bn in FY2026.

The growth has accelerated sharply since FY2024, with freelance export earnings more than tripling from $505 million to $1.76 billion in just two years as shown in Figure-I. ICT freelancing remains the largest contributor, while other freelance services have also expanded rapidly, reflecting the growing diversification of Pakistan’s digital workforce.

Figure-I: Exports trend of Freelance Services of Pakistan: For a country struggling to diversify exports, create productive employment and earn foreign exchange, these developments are encouraging. But they also raise an interesting question: could Pakistan’s growing digital exports deliver a climate dividend?

Unlike merchandise exports, digitally delivered services do not necessarily require factories, extensive raw materials, physical packaging or international freight. They can generate economic value with comparatively limited direct material inputs. This makes digital exports particularly attractive for a country seeking growth while confronting mounting environmental pressures.

Research offers some grounds for optimism. A 2023 Cornell University and Microsoft study found that fully remote workers could have a 54pc lower work-related carbon footprint than conventional onsite workers. Reduced commuting and office energy consumption were important contributors, although the results depended on working arrangements and individual behaviour.

However, these findings cannot automatically be applied to Pakistan. A freelancer who previously commuted to an office may indeed reduce transport emissions by working from home. But a young graduate securing a first international contract is generating additional economic activity, not necessarily replacing an existing commute. Both outcomes are economically valuable, but only the former provides an identifiable commuting-related emissions saving.

Moreover, digital services are not environmentally costless. Behind every laptop lies an infrastructure of electricity generation, telecommunications networks, data centres and electronic equipment manufacturing. Some environmental impacts occur locally, while others arise overseas through cloud computing and artificial intelligence services.

Pakistan’s energy conditions make this distinction especially relevant. Electricity shortages, backup generators, inefficient equipment and household cooling requirements can increase the environmental footprint of remote work. The manufacture and eventual disposal of computers and batteries also carry environmental costs.

The appropriate question, therefore, is not whether digital exports are completely green, but whether they can generate more economic value with fewer environmental pressures than alternative activities.

One useful starting point would be to measure greenhouse-gas emissions per dollar of digital export earnings. This could help policymakers understand the environmental intensity of different services and identify opportunities for improvement.

However, any such comparison must be carefully designed. A freelancer earning substantially more than another may use almost identical equipment and electricity. Differences in income, exchange rates and service specialization can therefore affect emissions intensity without necessarily reflecting improvements in environmental efficiency.

Equally, comparing a freelancer’s electricity consumption with the entire supply chain of a manufacturing exporter would be misleading. Consistent accounting boundaries are essential for credible comparisons.

The environmental argument also extends beyond carbon emissions. Electronic waste, equipment replacement, electricity demand and data-centre water consumption deserve attention. Extending the useful life of computers through maintenance and repair, for example, can reduce demand for new equipment and the environmental impacts associated with manufacturing.

These considerations suggest practical opportunities for Pakistan’s digital development strategy.

Digital-skills programmes could incorporate energy-efficient computing, equipment maintenance and responsible electronic-waste disposal. Access to reliable, cleaner electricity would improve both environmental performance and business continuity. Shared working facilities could provide dependable connectivity and equipment, although their benefits would depend on energy efficiency, occupancy and commuting patterns.

The opportunity is also social. Freelancing can expand access to international markets for young people, women and residents of smaller cities who may otherwise face barriers to conventional employment. Yet a training certificate alone does not create a sustainable livelihood. Affordable devices, reliable internet, international payment access and appropriate working conditions remain necessary. For women working from home, programme evaluations should also examine earnings, working hours, unpaid care responsibilities and control over income. Economic inclusion should be measured through improvements in livelihoods rather than registration figures alone.

Pakistan could begin with a collaborative study involving universities, industry associations and relevant government institutions. A representative sample of freelancers and digital firms could provide information on earnings, electricity use, equipment ownership and working arrangements, subject to appropriate privacy safeguards.  Such evidence would help identify which digital activities offer the greatest economic opportunities relative to their environmental impacts and where cleaner technologies could deliver the largest benefits.

The remarkable growth of Pakistan’s freelance exports demonstrates that human skills can increasingly generate foreign exchange without relying exclusively on traditional production and shipping arrangements. It does not establish that every dollar earned digitally is environmentally superior to a dollar earned through manufacturing or agriculture.

Pakistan needs stronger exports across all sectors. Digital services should complement, not replace, efforts to make industry and agriculture more competitive and environmentally sustainable. The climate dividend of digital exports should not be assumed; it should be measured and strengthened. By combining investment in skills with cleaner energy, efficient technology and credible environmental accounting, Pakistan can pursue an export model that generates greater economic opportunity while limiting the pressures placed on its environment.

 

1. The writer is a PhD Scholar at COMSATS University Islamabad.

2. The writer is a Professor at COMSATS University Islamabad.

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