Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s political future has come under pressure after preliminary election results indicated that his right-wing alliance was unlikely to secure a parliamentary majority, leaving opposition and Arab parties in a potentially decisive position.
With around 90% of the votes counted, Netanyahu’s bloc was projected to win 53 seats in the 120-member Knesset, while the opposition alliance was expected to secure 48 seats. Arab political groups could collectively claim another 19 seats, making their support potentially crucial to the formation of the next government.
However, both major political blocs face difficulties in bringing Arab parties into a governing coalition, complicating efforts to assemble a majority.
Netanyahu’s Likud party emerged as the largest single party, with an estimated 26 seats. Nevertheless, his hard-line allies, Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, suffered losses. Their parties, which previously held a combined 20 seats, were projected to secure only 13, according to the preliminary figures.
Both politicians have strongly backed Israel’s military campaign in Gaza.
On the opposition side, former Israeli army chief Gadi Eisenkot’s newly established Yashar party was projected to win 21 seats. Parties associated with Yair Lapid and former prime minister Naftali Bennett were expected to secure a combined 12 seats.
Voter turnout reached 78%, with Arab citizens of Israel also participating in significant numbers, strengthening the parliamentary representation of Arab political groups.
Arab parties have previously played a role in coalition politics. In 2021, Bennett included an Arab party in his governing coalition, demonstrating that such an arrangement was possible. However, the political circumstances surrounding the latest election have made similar cooperation uncertain.
Eisenkot claimed that the public mandate was against Netanyahu and warned the prime minister against using the Israeli military to advance his political interests.
Israel follows a proportional representation system in which voters cast ballots for political parties rather than individual constituency candidates. Parliamentary seats are allocated according to each party’s share of the vote, making coalition negotiations essential when no bloc secures a majority.
Despite Likud’s position as the largest party, the preliminary figures suggested that Netanyahu would face a difficult path to forming a government. The final outcome will depend on the confirmed results and the willingness of smaller parties to support or join a coalition.
