THE world appears to be entering a new era of Cold War once again. However, this time the competition is not over ideologies, but over the control of economies and maritime routes. The ongoing struggle between global powers has moved from open battlefields to these narrow waterways, which serve as the lifelines of the global economy. This is a new kind of war: silent, complex and extremely dangerous. Today, the weapons are not guns, but ports, supply chains and trade routes. To defeat a nation, a traditional war is no longer necessary—you simply need to cut off its supply lines. The current situation in the Middle East is a clear reflection of this reality. From the Strait of Hormuz to Bab al-Mandab, the waves carry more than just water; they clearly manifest the friction of global politics, economics and power.
On one side of the Arabian Peninsula lies the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz, while on the other are the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandab. Viewed on a map, these two passages appear like the two jaws of a strategic pincer gripping the Arabian Peninsula. One jaw holds the energy of the Persian Gulf, while the other holds the maritime trade connecting Asia, the Middle East and Europe. Due to the conflict in the Middle East, these trade routes have become the primary gravity centers for geopolitics and military strategy. In the coming days, if military pressure increases, the importance of these waterways will grow; even if a diplomatic solution is reached, their strategic significance will remain, because geography does not change with war. This maritime geography, stretching from the Persian Gulf to the Red Sea, serves as a reminder to the world of a fundamental truth: global power is not just about occupying land.
Sometimes, a sea passage only a few miles wide can become the center of strength, vulnerability and pressure for the entire world economy. Therefore, viewing the conflict from Hormuz to Bab al-Mandab as merely a regional war would be to ignore the true dimensions of the crisis. Bab al-Mandab is the vital maritime gateway between the Red Sea, the Suez Canal and the Indian Ocean. If the Strait of Hormuz is impacted and Bab al-Mandab also becomes unsafe, where will the global economy head? The answer is not limited to a hike in oil prices. When petrol becomes expensive, transport is hit; when the cost of electricity rises, industry comes under pressure and when the delivery of essential goods becomes costly, the burden of inflation shifts to the shoulders of the common man.
For Saudi Arabia, the situation is exceptionally sensitive and extraordinary. Its territory houses not only oil installations and major economic centers but also the holy cities of Makkah and Madinah. If these areas are caught in the reach of tensions, the matter ceases to be purely military; its religious and emotional impact would resonate across the entire Muslim world. Simultaneously, the Gulf states are attempting to maintain a difficult balance. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain and Oman maintain defensive and economic ties with the United States on one hand, while Iran remains their geographical neighbour on the other. In recent years, these Gulf states have realized that continuous tension could jeopardize the economic development projects into which they have invested billions of dollars.
The question also arises: how do China and Russia view this evolving situation? For China, the Gulf is not merely a political region; it is a vital hub for energy, trade and global economic connectivity. In recent years, Beijing played a key role in restoring diplomatic ties between Saudi Arabia and Iran while expanding its economic footprint in the region. Russia, too, maintains its own political and strategic interests in the Middle East. Consequently, the ongoing friction between the United States and Iran is no longer just a bilateral dispute; the interests of major global powers are now intertwined and Washington’s domestic front cannot be overlooked.
In the United States, the November mid-term elections are approaching. Issues such as prolonged warfare, escalating defense expenditures, oil prices and inflation are poised to become pivotal themes in American politics. According to the US Congressional Budget Office, Department of Defense expenditure related to the conflict involving Iran had already exceeded $38 billion by August 1st, with monthly costs potentially rising to $3 billion should the war continue.
The fundamental question remains: how far will the front spanning from the Strait of Hormuz to Bab al-Mandab extend? Will the Gulf nations become more directly embroiled in this struggle? Could a diplomatic path reopen between Iran and the US? Can Saudi Arabia and Iran transition their differences into a new framework for negotiation? And finally, will the major powers be able to prevent this crisis from escalating into a full-scale regional war? For Pakistan, these questions hold extraordinary significance. Iran is our neighbour, we share deep historical and fraternal ties with Saudi Arabia and China is our vital economic partner. The ultimate question now stands before us: in the emerging global order, who will determine the trajectory of energy routes, maritime trade and geo-economics?
—The writer is Chairman, Tehrik Jawanan Pakistan.
