THE continuity of negotiations between Iran and the US generates optimism about a permanent peace. However, significant differences remain between Tehran and Washington, which hinder the formulation of a peace deal. Besides, Israel has been struggling to spoil the peace process in the region. Notwithstanding President Donald Trump’s announcement to end the blockade, the US forces are obstructing the movement of Iranian commercial vessels. They had disabled five commercial vessels and redirected 116 to fully enforce the blockade. Simultaneously, Iran is asserting its control over the Strait of Hormuz by issuing warnings to commercial and military vessels to comply with regulations. Moreover, both sides are maintaining threatening rhetoric to prove that they are prepared for a war. The leadership’s war rhetoric and minor skirmishes between Iranian and American forces raise concerns about the probability of escalation and the end of the ceasefire.
President Trump is struggling to prove that he was successful in coercing the Iranian leadership to accept his terms and conditions for a permanent peace in the Middle East. Conversely, the Iranian negotiators seem in no hurry despite Tehran’s urgent need for economic breathing space and relief from the mounting pressure of the blockade. They understand Trump’s limitations and increasing opposition to the US-Israeli war on Iran within the United States. It was reported that war costs US consumers nearly $60bn since the conflict began on February 28. Moreover, Republicans are worried about the mid-term elections scheduled for November 2026. Therefore, Trump seeks a deal that saves his party’s majority in Congress.
The US Defense Secretary Pete echoed Trump’s warning on May 30, 2026. He said Washington was “more than capable” of restarting the war if a satisfactory deal is not reached. Indeed, the US is militarily capable of restarting a war, but there is no guarantee that it will win the asymmetrical warfare with Iran. The restarting of the war will have devastating consequences for the region and the worst economic fallout internationally. The Iranian ruling elite is equally sensitive to the immediate gains of the deal for their own people. It cannot afford an impression of surrender during the negotiations. It seems prepared to compromise on the uranium enrichment. At the same time, it insists on its sovereign right to the civilian or peaceful use of nuclear technology and material as a member of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. It is also demanding the immediate release of $12bn in frozen assets. Both these demands sound rational because Iran is a member of the NPT and it needs money for the reconstruction of infrastructure that was destroyed during Israel and the US aggression on Iran.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is determined to spoil the US-Iran negotiations and restart the war to completely obliterate Iran’s military capability. Therefore, the pro-Israeli lobby in the US is pressuring President Trump to ensure the complete dismantlement of Iran’s nuclear and missile capabilities and quash its influence in the region. Though the US is a stronger party militarily, economically and diplomatically in the conflict, it cannot fulfill Netanyahu’s wish. Israel’s armed forces have unleashed havoc by expanding operations across the Litani River and capturing the Shebaa Heights (Beaufort) and the Wadi al-Sulouqi area in southern Lebanon). On May 31, 2026, Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam termed Israeli aggression a “dangerous and unprecedented” one in the south and appealed for an immediate ceasefire. It was reported that in 2026 alone, Israeli armed forces killed more than 3,000 people, forcibly displaced 1.2 million and devastated dozens of villages and small towns. The Trump Administration has openly sided with Netanyahu. Last week, the US Congress advanced a US-Israeli military integration plan to augment Israel military capability by deepening their cooperation on weapons’ research, production and technology. While Iran is determined to see Lebanon covered by any regional deal that ends the war.
President Donald Trump’s mercurial temperament and use of military pressure tactics and Iranian negotiators’ firmness on core issues, could derail the entire process. The need of the hour is that both sides must engage seriously and provide credible assurances to each other, especially on nuclear and sanctions issues. Nevertheless, despite these hiccups, the Pakistani ruling elite seems confident that ongoing negotiations will culminate positively. To conclude, the characteristics of the Iran-US deal remain elusive. However, a few articles of the deal could include an extension of the ceasefire, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz without tolls, the restarting of negotiations on the Iranian nuclear program and a gradual easing of sanctions. These arrangements extend the ceasefire, but do not guarantee the lasting peace in the region until the change in Israel’s behaviour and granting of the right of self-determination to the Palestinians.
—The writer is Vice Chancellor of the Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad.
