LATEST developments indicate military engagement between the United States and Iran might not resume but the conflict might turn into a cold war.
In a significant development, President Donald Trump argued on Friday that a ceasefire with Iran had “terminated” hostilities, as he sought to bolster his argument that he did not need lawmakers’ permission to continue the conflict. There are also reports about possible final blow against Iran, prompting stern warning from Tehran that it would respond with “long and painful strikes” on US positions if Washington renewed attacks and also reasserted its control over the Strait of Hormuz, complicating US plans for a coalition to reopen the waterway.
It is, however, encouraging that rhetoric notwithstanding neither the United States nor Iran was disengaging from the diplomatic process being facilitated by Pakistan to arrive at an amicable settlement of the issues involved. Iran submitted a proposal envisaging formal end of hostilities and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz but delaying discussions on its nuclear programme citing complexity of the nuclear issue. However, the proposal did not find favour with Washington and Iran transmitted a revised plan through mediator Pakistan. No details were provided by any stakeholder but President Trump said the revised proposal also did not meet his expectations as he wants Iran to commit itself to nuclear non-proliferation in a bid to ward off future threats to the security of the United States. Axios news site reported that one plan to be shared with Trump during a briefing by top U.S. military leaders that was scheduled for Thursday involved using ground forces to take over part of the strait to reopen it to commercial shipping. Officials have said Trump is also considering extending the US blockade or declaring a unilateral victory, an indication of the desire to formally end the military action. This change in thinking comes following reports the United States wanted to achieve its war objectives by effectively implementing its naval blockade of Iranian ports that has seriously harmed the country’s economy.
Now Washington is seeking to set up an international coalition comprising allied states and shipping firms to coordinate safe passage through Hormuz while maintaining its blockade of ships serving Iran. As against this, Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz warned that it was “possible that we may soon have to act again” against Iran to achieve the war’s objectives. Israeli mischief could give a new twist to the conflict as the commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards aerospace force, Majid Mousavi, said that even a “short and tactical” enemy operation would be met with “with painful, prolonged, and extensive strikes”. Iran also hinted at its possible reaction saying American ships will face the fate of American bases in Gulf countries, which became frequent targets of Iranian missiles and drones. Iran already views the naval blockade of its ports and ships as extension of military operation and would most likely hit enemy ships in case of resumption of hostilities to ease economic pressure. The uncertain situation is casting dark shadows on global trade and economy as highlighted by a sharp rise in oil prices on Friday, which struck a four-year high on worries about a resumption of hostilities in the Middle East, before slumping later in the session. International benchmark Brent crude soared more than seven percent to $126 a barrel but then eased and turned lower to trade around $110. The situation demands an urgent understanding on the fate of the double blockade of Strait of Hormuz. Iran has demonstrated flexibility by offering its chokehold over the Strait of Hormuz if Washington lifted its blockade and broader negotiations took place. But the Trump Administration is insisting Iran’s nuclear programme be on the table. The two countries must listen to the voices of reason, especially the mediators, who are working hard to get an agreement on urgent issues.
