India has dusted off the long-stalled Sawalkote Hydroelectric Project on the Chenab River, putting it back on track after more than 40 years.
With the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) placed in abeyance, New Delhi is pushing ahead with international tenders for the 1,856 MW run-of-the-river project near Sidhu village in Jammu and Kashmir’s Ramban district. Estimated at over 22,700 crore and split into two stages, the project is now being rolled out by NHPC under a build-own-operate-transfer model.
For decades, Sawalkote had been held up due to Pakistan’s objections under the IWT, environmental clearances, and compensation disputes. But with the treaty on ice, India seems determined to step up its upstream utilization of the Chenab—one of the three western rivers that Pakistan depends on almost entirely for irrigation and survival.
This push isn’t limited to Sawalkote. Other Chenab projects like Pakal Dul (1,000 MW), Ratle (850 MW) Kiru (624 MW), and Kwar (540 MW) are also being fast-tracked. While these plants are technically “run-of-the-river” schemes—designed to avoid massive reservoirs—they still hold back water, shift natural flows, and squeeze downstream availability at critical crop cycles.
Pakistan, deprived of Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej waters, relies heavily on the Chenab to offset eastern river losses. India’s aggressive hydropower expansion threatens this lifeline, with diversion through tunnels and channels potentially cutting flows by 15–20 million acre-feet. Such a reduction could devastate irrigation, cripple crop cycles, and push Pakistan’s agriculture—and national food security—dangerously close to collapse.The environmental fallout is equally troubling. Successive dams break up the Chenab’s continuity, strip away forest cover, and wipe out aquatic habitats. The loss of over a million trees in similar projects underscores the scale of ecological cost. Downstream, the Indus Delta is set to dry out even further as fresh water and silt fail to make their way to the sea. Mangroves, fisheries, and coastal livelihoods are already in free fall; further reduction could finish off what remains of this fragile ecosystem.
Climate risks only add to the danger. Glacial retreat in the Himalayas is accelerating—studies show nearly 28% ice loss since 2000. Coupled with extensive damming, the risk of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) is rising sharply. These sudden surges can unleash millions of cubic meters of water, capable of wiping out settlements, damaging critical infrastructure, and destabilizing entire valleys along the Chenab’s path, compounding the region’s environmental and humanitarian vulnerabilities. Strategically, India’s hydro drive on the Chenab seems aimed at shoring up its bargaining position while the IWT remains suspended. But for Pakistan, the moves chip away at its last reliable water source, putting at stake not just agriculture but national stability.
Sawalkote is more than just another dam. It’s part of a broader effort by India to lock in control over western river flows. For Pakistan, it’s a wake-up call: either work out a viable diplomatic and technical response—or face up to the prospect of an ecological and agricultural collapse.
—The writer is a political analyst, based in Islamabad.
