PRIME Minister Shehbaz Sharif has rightly decided to take all the political parties into confidence regarding the proposed Azm-e-Istehkam operation, specifically in Balochistan and Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa provinces. Terrorist attacks have long been carried out in Balochistan by the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) and in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa by Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). The new military plan is expected to focus on domestic security threats and terrorists crossing over from Afghanistan amid mounting tensions between Pakistan and the Afghan Taliban rulers. Premier Shehbaz Sharif, on June 22, referred to plans to intensify efforts to curtail terrorists through regional cooperation with Pakistan’s neighbours. The new campaign is the latest in a series of military operations that Pakistan has launched with the intent of crushing armed violence and its timing has led to questions about the trigger for the initiative and what it might accomplish. Pakistan also announced a military operation in April 2023, during Shehbaz Sharif’s previous tenure as prime minister, but an official military campaign never commenced. The campaign will be complemented by socio-economic measures aimed at addressing the genuine concerns of the people and creating an environment that discourages extremist tendencies.
The Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) unilaterally ended a ceasefire in November 2022. The Government of Pakistan has repeatedly accused the Afghan Taliban of harbouring the TTP, a charge the Afghan Taliban government, which came to power in August 2021, has consistently rejected. While the launch date of Operation Azm-e-Istehkam has not been formally declared, the announcement comes at a time when the country has seen a dramatic surge in terrorism over the last year and a half. Most of these terrorist attacks are claimed by the TTP, which is ideologically aligned with the Afghan Taliban. Already strained relations could be tested further if Pakistan’s military operation extends into Afghanistan. In March of this year, Pakistan conducted cross-border strikes in Afghanistan against suspected TTP hideouts, which were publicly confirmed. The Shehbaz Sharif government and defence forces believe that active military force, known as kinetic action in army jargon, is the most effective approach to countering terrorism.
Pakistan has borne over one thousand casualties from almost seven hundred terrorist attacks in 2023.with most terrorist attacks occurring in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan, specifically targeting armed forces of Pakistan. Terrorist attacks have continued in 2024, including incidents targeting Chinese installations and personnel in both Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan. An attack on a convoy of Chinese engineers in Basham in March this year resulted in the deaths of at least five Chinese nationals and a Pakistani. Senior Chinese Minister and close associate of President Xi Jinping, Liu Jianchao has recently visited Pakistan, reiterating the importance of protecting Chinese interests in the country. Pakistan needs to improve security and the business environment. In a meeting with representatives of Pakistan’s leading political parties on June 21 Liu Jianchao was of the view that security situation has badly shaken confidence of the Chinese investors. Serious concerns of China have influenced Pakistani leadership. The timing of the new operation is potentially driven more by domestic politics and economic considerations.
China, one of Pakistan’s key allies, has invested more than US $ 64 bn in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Pakistan Army Chief General Asim Munir made a five-day trip to China earlier last month with the security of Chinese nationals and interests a critical part of their agenda. Pakistan faced a near default situation and underwent a contentious election amid significant domestic political turmoil last year. A large scale military campaign was not feasible under those circumstances. Terrorists target security forces to undermine government interests while preventing the loss of public support. In the provinces that are worst affected by terrorism, a lack of public support for security forces could hinder the operation’s effectiveness. With the election done and a government in place, and the economic situation stabilising, at least relatively, Pakistani leadership probably feels confident that it has sufficient domestic political space and a modicum of economic stability now to pursue a vigorous campaign to address the deteriorating security situation. Critiques are sceptical about the operation’s potential for success.
The TTP does not have permanent bases in Pakistan; instead, they operate from makeshift ones, frequently changing locations. If Pakistan conducts cross-border operations in Afghanistan, it may escalate tensions between the two countries. The transient nature of the TTP bases in Pakistan and the potential for escalating tension with Afghanistan will be a serious challenge. Though China has suggested Pakistan launch a crackdown on the terrorists, China’s strategic relationship with the Afghan Taliban means that it is not entirely on the same page as Pakistan regarding the current Afghan rulers. Pakistan and China diverge on how to approach the Taliban. A military campaign engaging in cross-border strikes to pressure the Taliban may challenge China’s stance on Afghanistan.
—The writer is author of several books based in Islamabad.
