IRAN’S salvo into Pakistan’s territory late on Tuesday night has taken the world by surprise. While it may have taken aback their unsuspecting citizens, there is a history of cross-border terrorism that has at times tested the resolve of both nations. The flashpoint involves the south eastern province of Iran, Sistan-Balochistan, and the vast abutting expanse of Balochistan in Pakistan. It is common knowledge that Baloch separatist factions have posed a challenge to the law and order situation in the province – sectarian factions have also made their mark sporadically, albeit transnationally.
Iran has allegedly targeted the Pakistani stronghold of the Jaish-Ul-Adl, a Sunni-Salafist faction that has of late, wreaked havoc in Sistan by targeting officials from law enforcement agencies. The porous border allows its personnel to seep into Pakistani territory with ease in a bid to recuperate when needed. Diplomatic quarters in Pakistan swiftly sprang into action and were quick in issuing a response. Pakistan’s correspondence has exhibited ire at its neighbour, particularly how it resorted to rash action circumventing diplomatic channels in the process; it maintains that the strike met a mosque in Panjgur resulting in the death of two innocent children while injuring three young girls. It has been deemed a breach of Pakistan’s sovereignty.
The drone and missile strike comes against the backdrop of certain developments across Pakistan and the greater region. Particularly ironic is the fact that the incumbent Caretaker Prime Minister of Pakistan Anwaar-Ul-Haq Kakar was exchanging pleasantries with the Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian at the side-lines of the World Economic Forum at Davos when the strike was ordered. It is difficult to digest that the latter was unaware of what was about to transpire. It is also being reported that both countries were engaged in a one-day joint-naval exercise in the Persian Gulf at the time.
The irony doesn’t stop there, however. Recently, the ex-Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, whilst campaigning at Dera Bugti in Balochistan, promised its residents that if elected, the Pakistan People’s Party would deliver them the Iran-Pakistan Gas Pipeline. Perhaps, the audience, amidst Iran’s actions, may now be mulling over what to make of the promise. In addition, op-eds across daily periodicals have recently surfaced highlighting the transformative potential of the unrealised nature of Pak-Iran trade. One wonders how that would fare now.
The need to unite against Israeli aggression on the hapless residents of the Gaza Strip is paramount. It is unfortunate that two major non-Arab players in this regard, are now embroiled in a crisis that diverts their resources and attention away from an unfolding massacre. It is not reasonable to expect South Africa alone to mount a formidable challenge to the Israeli-US nexus at the International Court of Justice.
From a geo-strategic lens, this stands out as a grave concern for Pakistan. The Iranian action fits into the broader trend of Pakistan falling out with its immediate neighbours. Apart from our northern all-weather ally in China, we now face diplomatic conflagration from all directions. While traditional hostilities persisting with India are a part of the norm, the downturn in our relations with Afghanistan over cross-border terrorism has the potential to test our national security framework.
Not much has come from either state sanctioned bilateral dialogue or the efforts of individuals such as Jamiat Ulama-e-Islam (F) leader, Fazal-Ur-Rahman’s visit to Kabul. The Foreign Office later distanced itself from the individual’s overtures aimed to rein in the TTP. Election
year in India is synonymous with Delhi crying wolf over false flag operations. With elections approaching, Narendra Modi and the chest-thumping RSS might have a final ploy up their sleeve to woo the electorate in the bid to achieve an elusive absolute majority in the Lok Sabha.
There is much to safeguard internally too for Pakistan in the light of this Iranian adventure. A general election is on the horizon whose legitimacy is subject to apprehensions already. A slew of terror attacks in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province had been the underlying factor behind a recent resolution in the Senate to delay elections. Pakistan cannot afford its security apparatus to get stretched any further. It may engender similar intrigues calling for a compromise on democratic stipulations. An effort to steer the economy to greener pastures is also afoot with the aid of the Special Investment Facilitation Council, primarily through attracting investors from abroad. Both the prospects of elections and economic recovery may face serious setbacks
if this issue is to escalate.
Diplomatic activity is now unfolding at rapid pace. Pakistan’s rebuke was followed by the severing of all diplomatic relations with Iran. A foreboding démarche was issued which read that the responsibility of further consequences rests solely with Iran. The international community, particularly China has called for restraint. A multitude of threats from hostile neighbours has reinforced the need for Pakistan to tread cautiously in the times ahead.
—The writer is an alumnus of the School of Oriental and African Studies
Email: [email protected]
views expressed are writer’s own.
