North Korea’s inexorable weapon development
A national defence science research institute in the DPRK carried out a test of underwater strategic weapon system 4-7 April 2023. The test perfectly proved the reliability of the underwater strategic weapon system and its fatal attack ability. The underwater nuclear attack drone ‘Haeil-2’… cruised 1,000 km of simulated underwater distance, the official Korean Central News Agency reported on April 08. In a concerning development, North Korea has significantly increased its military activities in recent weeks as a display of force against the joint military drills being conducted by the United States and South Korea. The “Haeil” and “Haeil-2,” unmanned underwater vehicles (UUV) which can be equipped with a nuclear warhead, have been unveiled by Pyongyang with an intention to display the widening spectrum of its weapon manufacturing capabilities. The extent of the Haeil’s development, testing and performance capabilities remains shrouded in secrecy and the available data is not enough to verify North Korea’s claims. However, considering the country’s technical expertise, development of a nuclear-armed UUV may very well be within the realm of possibility. In terms of its capabilities, the Haeil series, North Korea’s first nuclear-armed unmanned underwater vehicles (UUV), appears to be significantly less advanced than the country’s nuclear-armed ballistic and cruise missiles. Its range is limited to coastal targets in South Korea and southeast Japan and it lacks the time-to-target, accuracy and lethality of those missiles. While the Haeil series could evade allied air and missile defences, it remains susceptible to countermeasures from anti-submarine warfare (ASW) capabilities which render it less likely to be categorized as “first strike weapons”. In the light of the limitations and vulnerabilities of North Korea’s newly unveiled nuclear-armed unmanned underwater vehicle, the Haeil series, it is uncertain how much political and military significance Pyongyang will ultimately ascribe to this weapons system. Additionally, the political value of the Haeil may have already been exhausted by its initial unveiling. Therefore, it remains to be seen how much investment and attention North Korea will dedicate to deploying this particular weapons system.
However, North Korea has already gone a step further by revealing new, miniaturized nuclear warheads and launching an intercontinental ballistic missile with the potential to hit any part of the United States. North Korea’s aggressive posturing has also heightened tension between the parties involved. Such a continuously belligerent stance taken by North Korea underscores the challenge to the stability and peace on the Korean Peninsula. On March 23, blaming the joint military exercises between the United States and South Korea for the deteriorating security in the region, North Korea had claimed it tested an underwater nuclear attack drone able to unleash a “radioactive tsunami”. Satellite imagery has further aggravated the concern, revealing heightened activity at the country’s primary nuclear complex, as leader Kim Jong-un has ordered the ramping up of weapons-grade nuclear material production. Since March, US and South Korean forces have been engaging in a series of annual springtime exercises that include air and sea drills, featuring a US nuclear-powered aircraft carrier as well as B-1B and B-52 bombers. The drills also marked the first large-scale amphibious landing exercises in five years. The situation has escalated further as B-52s were deployed for the first time. Last week, South Korea and the United States conducted joint air drills which included the deployment of a US nuclear-capable B-52H strategic bomber, have drawn strong criticism from North Korea which perceives them as a rehearsal for an invasion. In response, the country has conducted a series of banned weapons tests, further ratcheting up the risks of conflict and instability. Throughout 2022, the Korean peninsula experienced a persistent increase in tension due to Pyongyang’s unprecedented missile testing and South Korea’s large-scale retaliatory joint military exercises with the United States. Unfortunately, 2023 has started in a similar fashion. On the very first day of the new year, North Korea tested super-large multiple rocket launchers, sending a clear message to the outside world about its intentions to continue expanding its nuclear and missile development program. Within the next 24 hours, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un confirmed this in a strategic meeting of his party for 2023, ordering an “exponential” increase in North Korea’s nuclear arsenal, including mass production of tactical nuclear weapons and the development of new missiles for nuclear counterstrikes. These developments increase the risk of conflict and instability on the Korean Peninsula and it is critical that all parties work towards a peaceful resolution to avoid a potential disaster.
In 2022, the Korean Peninsula witnessed one of the most tumultuous years in recent history. Pyongyang conducted an unprecedented number of missile tests with nearly a quarter of all the missiles it had ever tested launched in that year alone. Additionally, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un publicly declared that his country had become a nuclear weapons state and had no intention of reversing its nuclear proliferation. This declaration led to rising tension on the Peninsula, reminiscent of the “fire and fury” days of 2017 under former US President Donald Trump. North Korea’s missile tests began with short-range missiles aimed at South Korea, followed by mid-range ones capable of reaching Japan. The country then proceeded to test its advanced intercontinental ballistic missile, the Hwasong 17 which can hit the US mainland, demonstrating the full range and scope of its missile technology. According to several media outlets, Kim Jong Un has reportedly been making plans to launch a spy satellite into space this spring, as well as finalizing an advanced version of solid-fuelled intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) alongside the mass production of smaller, tactical nuclear weapons. In 2023, it appears that Kim Jong Un will continue the aggressive stance he began in the previous year. In the light of the North’s reported readiness for its seventh nuclear test, as well as the imminent launch of its inaugural military reconnaissance test slated for April, it appears probable that North Korea will once again flaunt its missile prowess as a means of exerting pressure on both South Korea and the United States.
—The writer is political analyst, based in Karachi.
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