Faheem Wattoo
AS the focus of the global intelligence community remains fixated on Afghanistan, intelligence officials visiting the region is quite normal, however India is celebrating the recent visits of MI-6, CIA Chief and Russian Security Head.
India is trying to prove its relevance to regional and global security matters/ concerns, as a matter of tact was not part of the Troika Plus mechanism and was sidelined during Doha talks because it has no significant role to play rather stake holders had a realization that it will ultimately spoil the Afghan peace process.
After Taliban capture of Panjshir, India UK along with other players find their only survival in disrupting Taliban’s efforts of peace by destabilizing Afghanistan Brain drain, seizing of Afghanistan Forex reserves, propaganda campaign against Pakistan and Taliban are all part of the destabilizing strategy.
India, Iran and NA duly supported by US, UK, Israel and few European nations were partners in the greater game in which all had vested interests.
All the stakeholders of the great game have been suddenly left high and dry after the swift takeover of Afghanistan by Taliban.
The rapid fall of Panjshir this time also revealed the secret of its prolonged resistance and formidable status earlier; the Indian and Iranian support enabled NA to keep Taliban from capturing it during their previous perios.
In this situation, India has emergedas the most affected country due to following reaons:-
India has utterly disappointed US, which considered it as the key mainstay country to lead its. China containment policy in the region.
The image India had formed by falsely projecting its military and economic capacity/ power has been badly shattered/ tarnished. India has lost its credibility for any kind of future role in the region.
India is fully aware of the fact that it is out of the game and is trying to mange its domestic and international public opinion through propaganda campaign against Pakistan and Taliban.
Capture of Panjshir can be termed as the last nail in India’s coffin in Afghanistan. Its huge investment in men and material has been washed away. It will be now impossible for India to use Afghan soil against Pakistan.
The growing differences between the US and Russian positions on Afghanistan despite more than two years of coordinating at the “Troika-plus” mechanism that included China and Pakistan is also matter of concern for India as it may have to make some though choices in future.
Moreover India foresees creation of a new market larger than the size of Indian market in term of volume and purchase capacity, this will have serious impact on Indian economic growth.
On the other hand Pakistan will IA grow stronger nd will enjoy a trade leverage to influence regional and international affairs.
The US and its allies face un-precedented disgrace, mutual blame game is on. India and China government blame US and on the other hand US sees them as unreliable partners which failed to deliver
Pakistan has found a reliable friend on its western front which can effectively exert pressure on India on Kashmir issue.
This is also one of the main concerns due to which India has been lobbying that Taliban government must not be recognized. China and Russia are fully geared up; to reap the gains of US withdrawal form Afghanistan, they are ready to cooperate with Taliban government to explore the tremendous opportunities the regional projects ranging from creation of new market, oil and gas pipelines, power generation projects can offer. Above all China and Russia can lay the foundation of bipolar world order thus limiting the influence of US.
Qatar and Germany have officially conveyed their instance that a pragmatic approach be taken to deal with Taliban government.
India and international community must be made to realize that India’s status has been downgraded and now it should not worry about regional affairs rather India needs to focus solving its long list of internal issues/ problems.
