M Sohail Ahmed
WHEN the Indian reporters asked Indian Navy Chief about what’s the new development with Pakistan on 26 Aug, he said that intelligence reports suggested that underwater wing of Jaish-e-Muhammad was planning an underwater strategic attack on Indian ships. He quoted intelligence reports as the source of his information. Intelligence reports are normally not divulged and discrete response is prepared to counter the threat. However, India has a history of saying opposite to what they plan. In 1971 war, the news about destination of the Indian carrier group leaving Indian port was spread as disinformation indicating false destination. Interesting to note that Admiral Karambir Singh has stated this information as new, whereas the same report was published by media one year ago citing JeM and its underwater wing. What is the purpose of this disinformation? Experience suggests that similar to stage-managed Mumbai attacks of 2008, a similar plan is on the cards.
One odd Indian navy ship or a flag carrier will be sunk indigenously to blame a so-called terrorist organization. During 2008 attacks, the Indian agencies killed 166 citizens of its own. The proof of this statement is that the victims included DIG Hemant Karkare, the chief investigating officer of Samjhota Express carnage (that killed hundreds of Pakistani nationals). He had fixed the blame on RSS operatives after preliminary investigations. He was warned to not bring out facts or his life would be threatened. How could so-called terrorists from outside India go straight away to Hemant and prosecute him from millions of residents in Mumbai? Certainly, the attack was well conceived by the Indian agencies to kill two birds with one stone. This new stage-managed event will probably be brought about to take pressure off from Indian government for repealing Article 370 thereby paving way for annexation of India-occupied Kashmir against UN resolutions and the will of the Kashmiri Muslims. It is also evident that such a plan is already underway. Reports have been released that some rubber boats have been found abandoned in sir creek and that Pakistani commandos have already entered Gujrat. Indian army southern command has also expressed its concern of an emerging threat in that region.
A recent tour of Indian Naval Academy officers to Run of Kutch is worth noting. However, the most sought after area of Indian operation is Gawadar port as CPEC is a soar in the eyes of the Indian government. At an opportune moment, an Indian flag carrier gets sunk, by the supposedly terrorist operating as an underwater wing which Admiral Karambir Singh has already predicted thereby blaming Pakistan for such an attack. Repeating the precedence of Balakot intrusion and forgetting the response of PAF, the surface or sub-surface forces may launch a missile attack on the port infrastructure of Gwadar. This may precede Indian naval carrier for augmenting airstrikes from the seaward direction, thereby expecting the world community to adopt non-interference policy. In 1971, the port of Chittagong was blocked by the Indian Navy aircraft carrier cutting off the two wings via sea, and air. Pakistan expected that US Navy 7th Fleet will arrive to intervene which never came. President Trump has already stated that Pakistan and India should sort out their differences by themselves and “themselves” is a clear manifestation of the likely response of the USA.
There must be no expectation after 48 years have passed. Luckily Pakistan has now developed the capability to resolve problems at its own. Any missile or air attack should be responded with massive missile retaliatory attack on Jawaharlal Nehru port of Mumbai and Kandla port complex. The destructive power should be sufficient to render these ports for at least the next 50 years. In the last two interactions in the last two years, Pakistan detected an Indian submarine and pushed it towards deep water. However, in the next interaction, there should be a fishermen folk force that should be equipped with big fishing nets to catch the snorkelling submarine or when it is detected at periscope depth. Legal authority is entrusted to them to prosecute the culprit crew at sea in the light of official secret act of 1923. An adequate number of ships awaiting scrap at Gaddani may be modified to for offshore coastal surveillance, monitoring and facilitating our fighter air crafts flying defensive air patrols at sea. Anchored off the coast, in deep-sea or berthed, these scrap ships should have own power generators, communication equipment and small boats and be able to provide complete air, surface and subsurface picture, enabling Pakistan Navy to take punitive actions against any intruding units. All ships bound to India must be directed to pass 200 NM clear of Gawadar port because of Indian efforts to a stage-manage event at sea.
—The author is a freelance writer and retired commodore of Pakistan Navy.
