There is a general impression that Pakistan has entered into a shining phase of its diplomacy as, so far, it has succeeded in maintaining a strategic balance in the backdrop of fast-changing global and international scenarios but serious questions are being raised whether it would continue steady walk on the tight rope because of the complexities of the geo-strategic environment and limitations of the country.
It is an undeniable reality that the way the civil-military leadership tackled the challenge thrown by Indian belligerency and aggression in May 2025 and the situation arising out of the crisis contributed a lot in carving out a place of respect for the country in the comity of nations. The principled stand taken by the country on the issues involved, professionalism of the armed forces and deftly crafted diplomatic approach not only thwarted nefarious designs of the enemy but also boosted prestige and global standing of Pakistan. As has been highlighted by a number of developments including restoration of peace in the Middle-East and security and stability in Afghanistan, Pakistan is now consulted and its advice and assistance sought on regional and global issues. It has become a proactive member of the Islamic Ummah and the warm welcome accorded to Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Army Chief Field Marshal Syed Asim Munir during their visits to various countries and productive nature of discussions held with hosts reflected the growing importance, relevance and influence of the country.
The most striking aspect of the evolving situation is the historic defence agreement signed by Pakistan and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, which will go a long way in determining the course of events in this part of the globe and the Middle-East. This NATO-style accord envisages that aggression against any one country will be considered as aggression against both. It was a pleasant surprise that the bilateral agreement with KSA evoked no adverse reaction from our neighbor and brotherly country Iran and instead its President Masoud Pezeshkian, while addressing the 80th session of the UN General Assembly, welcomed the landmark deal as the beginning of a ‘comprehensive regional security system’. There is a likelihood that other regional countries might also strike similar pacts or become part of the Pak-Saudi deal, which will bring about a paradigm shift in the security environment of the region.
Pakistan’s policy of maintaining friendly ties with China and increasing bilateral cooperation with the United States and the Russian Federation is also considered a remarkable diplomatic feat. However, of late, there is a growing concern that the country was warming up with the United States at the expense of strategic relations with the time-tested friend – China. In fact, from the very beginning, some circles started expressing apprehensions that the administration of President Donald Trump is beckoning and showering praises on Pakistan as part of the deliberate policy to lure the country away from China. Pakistani policy-makers have been insisting that the country was trying to forge closer cooperation with all important and influential capitals without jeopardizing bilateral relations with any other country including China. But there are some disturbing developments that have the potential to create fissures in smooth and warm ties with Beijing. There was a report in the international media that Pakistan has offered to the United States to build a new deep-sea port at Pasni on the Arabian Sea, just over a hundred kilometers away from the China-funded and operated Gwadar Deep Sea Port. The adverse reaction to the idea prompted issuance of a denial but the nature and contents of the clarification did not fully address the concerns of people of Pakistan. Instead of formal denial, the state-run PTV was used to issue a statement quoting unspecified sources as saying that there had been no official communication with Washington and any conversations on the matter were “purely exploratory”. The clarification, therefore, does not rule out the existence of an idea or proposal and this being so it can be a matter of concern for our Chinese friends, who have invested heavily on the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and its key component – Gwadar port. It seems we have easily forgotten the history of Gwadar port, the establishment of which was opposed tooth and nail by some influential countries and it was because of Chinese cooperation that the long delayed project became a reality. No doubt, the Pasni proposal does not include any provision for US military bases, rather it seeks to develop financial and logistical partnerships in the backdrop of moves already undertaken for initiating the process of mineral exploration and export but such a venture will give Washington a commercial foothold in a region where China has made substantial investments. This is enough to cause unease in Beijing beside the remote possibility of US military presence in Pasni at some point of time in future.
There is also a related development, which throws further light on implications of Pakistan-US cooperation in the mineral sector. A report appearing in Hong Kong based English news website Asia Times says China has restricted the export of its rare-earth extraction technologies after learning that Pakistan uses Chinese equipment to produce niche metals for the United States. The new rules, issued by the Chinese Commerce Ministry, cover rare‑earth production, processing and separation equipment, as well as related raw and auxiliary materials. This is, perhaps, for the first time that China has imposed restrictions that would harm economic interests of Pakistan but in the stricter sense of the word these cannot be described as Pakistan-specific but part of the ongoing trade war between the two economic giants – the United States and China. The development has been explained by a Shandong-based columnist who says “Pakistan’s key minerals saved the US defense industry at the last moment” following retaliatory trade measures taken by China against the United States.
Pasni and rare-earth are not the only issues with potential to create misunderstanding between Pakistan and China as progress on the CPEC itself has lost its momentum due to alleged foreign pressure and some internal issues. No doubt, a decision has been taken to initiate Phase-II of the CPEC envisaging a new era of high-quality, inclusive and people-centered development but desired progress towards practical implementation of the plan could not be made during the recently held 14th Meeting of the Joint Cooperation Committee (JCC) of CPEC in Beijing. Several important issues remained unresolved, which effectively means further delay in implementation of Phase-II. Chinese are known for their speed and timely execution of projects (and they proved this by setting up power plants under the Early Harvest programme of the CPEC) but security concerns have delayed completion of several ongoing projects. We will have to address these concerns in a satisfactory manner if we are genuinely interested in making CPEC-II a reality.
It is a sorry state of affairs that settlement of existing debt continues to be a source of serious concern despite finalization of a deal between the Government of Pakistan and a consortium of banks aimed at retiring circular debt. Regrettably, under pressure from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), instead of making payments to Chinese power plants the Government is seeking debt reprofiling. It was because of our inability to resolve the debt settlement that China dragged its feet on commitments to provide concessional funding for the strategically important railway project ML-I. Now the project will be financed through multilateral banks causing more delays and hiking its cost.
China readily agreed to help realize the dream of Pakistan to accelerate the process of industrialization and many Chinese companies expressed their desire either to make new investments or shift their plants to Pakistan. However, we are guilty of criminal delays in the establishment of the agreed Special Economic Zones (SEZs), wasting a golden opportunity for rapid industrialization and a boost in economic and employment opportunities.
No saner element in Pakistan will oppose forging of closer cooperation with the United States in different spheres of life, especially in view of the fact that the US is one of the major export destinations of the country. However, Pakistan must not allow circumstances to create misunderstanding with countries with a track record of credible and reliable partnership with Pakistan for the sake of transactional relationships and transitory gains. There is an impression that our civil and military leadership is spending more time in the West than in China despite our strategic relationship with Beijing and plans to take it to new heights.
China has all along demonstrated its commitment to Pakistan and never ditched the country during difficult and trying times was we witnessed in the recent conflict with India. Professionalism and bravery of our armed forces notwithstanding, it is a fact that the Chinese-supplied military hardware and technologies made all the difference in the short war. As against this, Pakistan purchased weapons including F-16s worth billions of dollars but these proved to be paper tigers because of a clause imposed in bilateral deals barring their use against India.
People of Pakistan are indebted to the leadership of China, which always expressed unqualified support for Pakistan’s security and territorial integrity. China did not mince words in condemning Indian aggression and it is still supporting Pakistan despite Indian desire to move closer to Beijing. Apparently, China has a vested interest in welcoming this change in Indian thinking (after several rebukes from Washington) as previously India was being pampered as a regional counter-weight to China in advancement of plans to contain rising China. However, despite all this, China is still displaying its sincerity and commitment towards Pakistan.
There is also an opinion that Pakistan never received the kind of treatment and cooperation from the West in return for its role in realizing the shared goals and instead it was treated discriminately vis-à-vis India on many issues including nuclear and missile technologies. Pakistan is now in the good books of the West but so far it has not received any worthwhile concrete benefit or sure commitments for long term partnership except an import duty by the US, which is marginally lower than other regional countries but not enough to lead to a meaningful increase in exports. The US has also approved sale of AMRAAM missiles to Pakistan but no one knows what would be the final fate of the decision by the time delivery is due. India was granted a clean waiver by the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) in 2008 and the issue of a similar waiver for Pakistan could prove to be a litmus test of the sincerity of the US and the West towards Pakistan.
