Will a ceasefire hold?

PAKISTAN and Afghanistan on Wednesday agreed to a temporary ceasefire following a fresh round of deadly cross-border clashes that had threatened to escalate into a wider conflict.

Pakistan’s Foreign Office said the ceasefire, implemented at the Taliban’s request and with mutual consent, would last for 48 hours during which both sides will make sincere efforts to find a positive resolution to this complex but solvable issue through constructive dialogue.

Reports indicate that Qatar, which played host to the Taliban leadership for a long time, facilitated an understanding in this regard but the truce might not hold because of apparent lack of commitment on the part of the regime in Kabul. This is evident from the statement issued by Taliban spokesperson Zabihullah Mujahid who claimed that the ceasefire was agreed at the insistence of Pakistan and it will hold ‘unless there is a violation’. His statement also made no reference to the dialogue process as ceasefire is unlikely to remain in force until and unless the underlying cause – presence of foreign terrorist outfits on Afghan soil – is addressed in a satisfactory manner through discussions and dialogue. Analysts also warn that the ceasefire may prove temporary without a framework for structured dialogue or a third-party monitoring mechanism in place. There is an atmosphere of lack of trust between the two countries as highlighted by the remarks made by Defence Minister Kh. Muhammad Asif, who said that the Afghan Taliban are “fighting a proxy war” on behalf of India and stated that they have become a “stooge” for New Delhi. The western border is virtually closed and Pakistan has suspended cargo transportation under the Afghan transit trade from Karachi ports. All this shows Pakistan wants concrete measures to address its concern and now the ball is in the court of the Taliban and their next strategy will determine the fate of the ceasefire.

 

Get Alerts