Fresh wave of escalation of hostilities between Iran and America has compounded the loss of innocent lives in Iran and Lebanon and multiplied the miseries of human beings across the Middle East and beyond triggering a humanitarian crisis spanning in multiple regions in an already fragile context, with significant impact to population mobility. National social systems and host community safety networks are under considerable strain as protection needs continue to rise. The indefinite cessation of hostilities remains fragile, underscoring the need to maintain operational readiness in the event of a potential deterioration. In the Islamic Republic of Iran, extensive physical insecurity and the destruction of more than 125,000 civilian infrastructure and key services, such as hospitals, schools and emergency facilities, are drastically affecting basic human lives.
As of April-May 2026, an estimated 300,000 people have seen their homes directly affected. While the fragile ceasefire has reduced insecurity, widespread destruction, rubble and explosive remnants continue to constrain access to basic services and hinder response efforts. At the same time, in neighbouring countries bordering the Islamic Republic of Iran, population movements continue to largely reflect routine, seasonal or precautionary travel patterns rather than crisis-driven displacement.
The ceasefire in Lebanon has contributed to a partial stabilization of population movements, with an initial slowdown in large-scale displacement. However, mobility patterns remain fluid and the situation fragile. While hundreds of thousands of households have begun cautious and often temporary returns, particularly influenced by perceived security conditions and access to services and conditions in areas of origin, returns remain limited in several areas, including the South, Nabatieh, the southern suburbs of Beirut and parts of the Bekaa, due to ongoing insecurity and infrastructure damage. Cross border flows into the Syrian Arab Republic are continuing, reaching over 400,000 movements since 02 March and placing additional pressure on an already overstretched humanitarian system.
On 15 June 2026, the United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran reached an agreement on a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) concerning the cessation of hostilities. Since the announcement of the MOU and subsequent 60-day ceasefire, its impact on mobility dynamics across the region and beyond remains uncertain. The situation continues to be highly fragile, requiring sustained monitoring and operational preparedness. In the Islamic Republic of Iran, some families have begun returning to their homes amid signs of de-escalation. However, thousands continue to shelter in hotels due to damage to housing and civilian infrastructure. As of 01 June, approximately 9,000 individuals remain displaced, unable to return to their homes due to the extent of the damage. Overall, population movements remain localized, temporary and economically driven with no signs of mass displacement.
In Lebanon, displacement levels remain significant with thousands of IDPs across 856 points reported as of 17 June 2026. Following the MOU announcement, some displaced families have begun cautiously returning to their areas of origin through short exploratory movements and initial return attempts. As of 17 June 2026, 372,590 IDPs have returned to their communities.
Humanitarian aid organizations fear that a prolonged war in Iran and strikes in surrounding countries could set off more economic hardship and a new international refugee crisis. Syria’s long civil war displaced more than half of that country’s population of 21 million. Iran has about 90 million people. The UN’s Refugee Agency estimates over 3 million people have already been internally displaced in Iran and an additional million in Lebanon. Are neighboring countries – Iraq, Turkey or Syria-prepared for that? It’s not clear whether or not those outflows are indeed going to happen. But certainly within both Lebanon and Iran, they’re having profound implications. And it’s creating great hardship not just for people who have been displaced, but disruption within the countries and difficulties for the humanitarian agencies that respond to these needs٫ millions more people who are in need of humanitarian assistance – people who are wounded, who are dispossessed, who are unhoused. And it comes at a time when international humanitarian assistance has been at the lowest ebb and the funding for it has been slashed.
The World Food Programme estimates that if the war continues, more than 40 million Iranians—around half the population—could face acute hunger. Meeting such vast needs without political solutions, including sanctions relief, will be extremely difficult. Iran has traditionally limited the role of international humanitarian agencies, preferring to manage relief efforts itself. The country is already hosting about 1.2 million registered Afghan refugees, yet has received relatively little external humanitarian assistance. International sanctions further complicate relief operations, making it difficult for aid agencies to work inside Iran. At the same time, disrupted air traffic, damaged shipping routes, and ongoing bombardment create major logistical and security challenges, severely restricting humanitarian access. The situation is somewhat less complex in Lebanon, where international agencies can coordinate with the government. However, both Iran and Lebanon face the same critical obstacle: a severe shortage of humanitarian funding. Without greater financial support and improved political conditions, aid agencies will struggle to meet the growing needs of millions affected by the conflict.
Wars do not solve the problems- diplomacy, negotiations and creating a spirit of goodwill and trust coupled with mutual respect for each other’s sovereignty is needed to remove the irritants in relations. If the parties to the conflict are sincere to end the hostilities with a little “give and take” the unnecessary killings and destruction can be avoided and peace can return in the region.
—The writer is Former Civil Servant and Consultant (ILO) & International Organisation for Migration and author of seven books.
