PAKISTAN is the 5th largest country by population (250 million), and on the trajectory to become the 3rd largest by 2050 (400 million). Its economy is roughly USD 350 billion (GDP). It should be obvious that Pakistan is too large a country to be bailed out by the world, either through loans or FDIs or a combination of the two. For arguments sake, if we secure a tranche of USD 3 billion from IMF, and USD 6 billion in FDIs, the money raised is USD 9 billion. At this point, our leadership celebrates. But in reality, and with all due respect, my question is; “USD 9 Billion?, So what”? Given the size of Pakistan’s economy – GDP of roughly USD 1 billion per day – USD 9 billion is pittance. Consequently, within a few weeks of the celebrations, we are back to square one and start the borrowing cycle all over again. Hence, we should be clear that to thrive, Pakistan needs to generate hundreds of billions on its own steam. I contend that we can add USD 100 billion to our GDP in 10 years – not only is it possible, but it is an imperative!
To generate USD 100 billion is within our power, however to make it happen will require us to be deliberate and focus on selective employment initiatives for our youth and female population, while concurrently creating business sectors which capitalize on Pakistan’s comparative advantages: local resources, raw materials, and manpower. Let us explore the sectors that have the potential and whose value chains will benefit all segments of society. One such sector which should be a priority for Pakistan is agriculture, specifically advancement of grass-root level food processing. Pakistan is predominantly an agrarian society. The facts are; more than 50 percent of the population lives in rural areas and is involved in agriculture; 70 percent of Pakistan’s exports are directly or indirectly derived from agriculture; 90 percent of our farmers own less than 7 acres; majority of Pakistan’s work force, particularly women, are involved in agriculture; and, agriculture is the backbone of food security and nutrition. On the flip side, despite our reliance on agriculture for employment and economic growth, we focus little on teaching value addition and processing to our farmers resulting in below sustenance income, and post-harvest losses of 35-40 percent in fruits and vegetables. So clearly, we have the manpower, talent, and raw material, but they being underutilized or down right wasted. By some calculations, the loss in fruits and vegetables might be USD 5 – 7 billion per year or more. We need to declare grass root level food processing a national thrust sector and create a USD 30 billion value added processed food sector over 10 years which will not only make our small farmers richer, but contribute to foreign earnings through exports. International models are there to guide the way.
Another priority sector for Pakistan, which is unique to Pakistan and cannot be replicated by any other country is the Gandhara-based Buddhist pilgrimage sector. There is only one Gandhara and only one place on earth where the 2nd Buddha (Padmasambhava) was born. He and Gandhara are sacred to 500 million Buddhists of the world. And if we were to promote this heritage properly, and target 1% of the 500 million Buddhists to visit Pakistan by 2035, we would create a USD 30 billion sector. In other articles, I have elaborated on the “hows” of creating this pilgrimage sector.
Thus far, we have seen that concentration on developing just two sectors would add in excess of USD 60 billion to the GDP by 2035. Let us now look at the potential of another sector, the export of qualified (not cheap) Pakistani manpower. This sector can skyrocket remittances to Pakistan. Currently, Pakistan receives remittances in the range of USD 25 – 30 billion per year. According to OPF, there are 9 million overseas Pakistanis. This equates to USD 3300 per overseas Pakistani confirming that most of the remitters are not high-end earners. Pakistan needs to add to this international workforce by catering to international skill gaps; targeting the right countries; imparting relevant language and cultural skills; and subsequently exporting 1 million Pakistani youth. They could thus earn USD 80 billion by 2035, leading to a further addition of USD 40 billion in remittances.
In another article, I will delve into the details of the specific sectors and markets, but let me rest my case with the following observations: Japan needs 2.5 million elderly home care workers; USA, EU and ASEAN are short 3.5 million hospitality workers and 2 million nurses; the world requirement of IT skilled workforce is practically limitless. Off the 10-15 million workers needed in these four sectors by 2035, dare we dream of providing 1 million workers? We can and we should! We currently have more than 72 million youth between the ages of 15 and 29 years, and we have around 700,000 leaving the country every year for economic opportunity. Let us provide the skills and opportunity and target the export of 1 million qualified youth over the next 10 years! Pakistan, through concentration on three sectors – agro-processing, Buddhist tourism and export of qualified labour force can generate over USD 100 billion by 2035. That is a vision worth pursuing, or we will face a revolt of the Gen-Z.
—The writer is a former Senior Advisor to the Government.
