Unity in defiance, Ukraine
UKRAINE, the adopted baby of the United States, is in the centre of world politics.Putin-Biden talks remained inconclusive on the issue of guarantees that Ukraine will not join NATO.
But German Chancellor Shultz and President Putin’s meeting showed some thaw and Russia announced partial withdrawal.
As usual, the US President hurled threats on Russia of disastrous consequences if Russia invades Ukraine.
Russia rejects this assertion, yet Mr Blinkin, US Secretary of State and US President Biden insist that they have reliable intelligence information.
The question is Russia same of three decades back.It has re-emerged on the world stage.The world is no more unipolar.Even China has challenged the US, in the last CCP moot, that China is a superpower.
Both Russia and China now stand together.NATO and Russia both are ramping up their forces.The US have inducted over three thousand more troops in Eastern Europe and are exercising.
Russia and Belarus, on the other side, are having exercises as well near the borders of Ukraine and Crimea.
The fact is Ukraine and Crimea are the soft belly of Russia.
It cannot afford, US, under the cover of NATO, to deploy its assets at the doorstep of Russia.
Further, Russia has deep sentimental attachment, the Russian Empire was born in the middle of 16th century in the city of Kiev.Beside strategic and economic interests, US fathom, Russia gradually asserting its influence in Ukraine.
China with its growing might will also penetrate in Europe.For USA, Russia-China inroads economically and strategically in Europe, especially after departure of German Chancellor Angela Markel, must be protected
Public sentiments are at cross with government policies of majority EU members.
The European population does not want war.Wars have ravaged Europe for the last three hundred years.There is a saying, dig a ditch in Europe, you hit blood.
Last seventy five years plus Europe saw relative peace and fresh air.The EU does not want to be pushed into a new war imposed by the US for their own strategic and economic interests, especially after Covid-19 pandemic hit hard on their economies.
Germany is a key state which, in the future, poses a strategic threat to the supremacy of the US.
North Stream 2 gas pipeline is one example which will increase Russian clout in Europe.Yet, war games are going on both sides.The Romanian military is also exercising.
On the other hand, Crimea is important for Russia.NATO is eying Crimea as it is the soft belly of Russia.Russia alleges, by making Ukraine a member of NATO, the US wants to install its missiles laden with nuclear weapons stationed at the periphery of Russia.
It is important for access to the Black Sea which is also a hub of activity these days.Germany is indecisive for economic and strategic reasons.Thus, the German Chancellor’s shuttle diplomacy.
Germans are weary of war ravage as the better part of the 20th century destroyed it.That is the precise reason Germany and Europe are seeking a diplomatic solution.
That is the reason for French President Macron shuttling for a diplomatic solution though presently his parlays did not meet success.
But the Russian President’s statements indicate there is scope in Macrons efforts.Russia asserts the US wants to drag them into war in Ukraine.Russia categorically stated they have no intention to invade Ukraine.
A deep analysis indicates the compulsion of Mr.Biden to please the armament industry complex on one side and to prop up his sinking popularity internally.
It forces him to take a hard stand.Whereas Ukraine lacks credentials to become NATO, yet NATO or Mr.Biden are not ready to give guarantees that Ukraine will not be made a member.
The USA’s stand that they are protecting democracy is a total farce.The quickness in dispatching three thousand additional troops in Poland and thousands of tons of war material and weapons to Eastern Europe indicate the approach.
On the other side, Putin’s reply to Biden’s threat of massive across-Atlantic strikes ring danger bells, the war will not remain limited.
Reportedly small scale exchanges of fire have occurred between Crimea and Ukrainian separatists.
Similarly propaganda by the West is in full swing.Advising residents to leave is also part of hybrid warfare to put pressure on Russia.
On the other hand, Mr.Blinkin’s prophecies forecasting invasion could be any time is ominous.Interestingly Indian media has already announced the attack.
Collision of western countries and media is thus evident.Are they planning a false flag operation?.
It will give just excuse to Mr.Biden to start a war.The “Fear” managers are also active which Russia condemns as they are creating panic over Ukraine.
UK Foreign Minister Liz is also doing the same by creating war hysteria.US threats on North Stream, 2, have not gone well with Germany and expose real intentions.
It will be a huge loss to the German economy.Chinese President XI has also extended his support to Russia.
China stands with Russia.The impact of the war will not remain confined to Ukraine or Russia.It will involve not only the whole of Europe but also US interests elsewhere.
China will not remain disengaged in case of Trance Atlantic Response and that means QUAD countries getting involved.
It will pull India in conflict irrespective of their stated stand not to be involved.In this scenario, if threatened in the South China Sea, China will activate the Ladakh front.
That is where Pakistan will be pulled in militarily.World economy will plunge downward.Soaring oil prices will crush developed and developing countries alike.All this means the collapse of many countries economically.Pakistan is no exception and will face stress.
—The author is a senior veteran, decorated with SJ, IS Bar in 1965 and 1971 wars and SI (m). A senior Defence and Industry analyst.