FATE of Ukrainian war? This question is hanging in the corridors of power in the United States and NATO. The spectre of the 20 years war of Afghanistan and withdrawal of the United States and its exit is a major geo-strategic setback for the United States. Further aid to Ukraine has been pledged both by US and NATO, including high tech weapons regardless of opposition in some US quarters. The recently-held NATO moot did not have any conclusive decisions and has entered into an epic failure, the reason, the differences amongst the members, lack of trust, and increasing inflator pressures in Europe both on the industry and consumers. The sanctions which have been placed by America and the European Union have had adverse effects.
After initial shocks, the Russian Federation managed to come out of this mess and rather has gained a new direction both in its economic and strategic policies towards other powers and globally. It has managed to overcome the losses incurred due to the sanctions by way of diversifying its markets.The LNG imports of the German and EU have in fact increased. 80% of the German industry depends on imported gas for fertilizer manufacturing . Diversification means the inflammatory cost in the production of the fertilizers and consequent impact on the food security. India, which was importing a small amount of oil from Russia, one percent only, has increased to 40%. A phenomenal increase. Japan has increased its grain inputs from Russia many times.
Russia has managed to diversify itself from the dollar and the swift system. The advent of a new currency, with the inclusion of China, as well as an alternate international transactions platform being created by China has helped Russia and China to overcome the US economic pressures. Contrarily Russia has gained from these sanctions, its dollar-ruble parity has improved and there has not been much of a dent in the inflation. By seizing the properties of the European Union Industries as well as the aviation industry Russia has made up its losses. The reserves have improved to the pre sanction levels and in fact are growing.
The contours of the BRICS meeting held in Africa have unfolded a new chapter in global politics. Many new countries have been added to its fold. Unfortunately, Pakistan is missing. It is being termed as a great success of the Russian Federation. The world sees the declining influence of the European colonial powers from the erstwhile colonies and that of America. Niger military takeover, followed by Gabon, is a direct manifestation of that changing political environment in Africa. Slave trade in the past centuries apart the last hundred years trillions of dollars’ worth has been siphoned away from Africa. Hunger and poverty are the destiny of many countries. Still colonial powers are champions of human rights, not prepared to leave African countries.
It Is interesting to note that Russians have been able to test the ability of all US and European Union weapons systems and blunted these successfully in battle. They have also been able to carry out research and development on these systems to create counter weapons. By using proxies like Wagner Group and the church and fighters Russia has gained tremendously in avoiding the major losses to the regular army as well as to save the financial cost of the war. Russia is now in a position to launch operations in offensive mode having tied the Ukrainian forces both in men and material. In spite of the mercenaries which are inducted by the European Union and America, there is a shortage of manpower in Ukraine.
In western Ukraine people and regions are weary of the war and do not want it to be continued. The greater strategic interest of the US is keeping the war going on and it is getting dirty by day. Use of cluster bombs, Induction of long-range drones, inclusion of F-16s through Scandinavian countries, NATO has turned the war murkier and bloodier. The supply of such ammunition to the Ukrainian army banned under Geneva Convention in over 100 countries is the testimony of the US cruelty toward the civilian population who are the sufferers in this war. Already the damage which has been caused to the economy, the infrastructure and the industry is in trillions.
Zelensky’s bid for NATO is counterproductive. If NATO accepts Ukraine to join it means, NATO is directly getting involved in war with Russia. This is not even acceptable to the US and the EU countries. Russia has poised its offensive forces on the borders of Poland and eastern countries in case USA decides a push in the war threatens the vital interests of Russia. The Eastern European countries are also not in favour of continued supply of weapons to Zelensky. The destruction of Russian submarine off Polish waters has increased threatening the European theatre. Hungry has openly asked to stop supplying weapons to Ukraine.
The world now witnesses the climax of fifth generation communication warfare in this theatre of war. Massive use of media to denounce Putin and also criticize China for its support to Russia is going on in three dimensions of communication warfare spectrum. Despite massive propaganda by the western media and constant planning of coups against Putin backfired. The death of Wagner Group Head Mr Prigozhin has also indicated the hold of President Putin. The partial damage caused by long-range drones has made no difference to the war. The Republican candidates are now blaming Mr. Biden by indulging in such adventures and also supporting regime change that has destroyed the US foreign policy. They demand congressional probe in this matter.
The analysts point out, will there be any peaceful end of war by NATO and the US? No, it is not going to happen soon. War would have ended two months after it started but for Mr. Boris Johnson who scuttled the peace deal brokered between Russia and Ukraine in Belarus. Russia has the resilience and space to trade in a long war. The areas which have been occupied by the Soviet Union will not go back. Even within the EU the politicians like Mr. Sarkozy, the former French President, have questioned the wisdom of pursuing an aim which is politically, militarily and strategically not possible. Though he has been criticized by the Zelenskiy regime and many others yet the fact remains the choice in front of the Ukrainians is that they should get out of this panorama that they will win back the territories gone with outside help. Unlike the Afghanis, Ukrainians majority is divided. My assessment is till the US elections nothing will change. The global impact both in its strategic and economic terms, enormous impact will continue.
—The author is a decorated veteran with 32 years of active military service and 30 years of corporate and industry experience and a senior defence analyst and researcher.
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