Rizwan Ghani
BRITAIN’S Conservative Party has emerged victorious in UK’s general election with absolute majority. The voting patterns in the country’s north and south were inverted and as a result Labour lost its traditional seats with working class voters from industrial belts to Conservative nationalist agenda of Get Brexit Done. Labour Party came to the election with general public welfare manifesto with some very important high ticket plans including free wifi, scrapping of university tuition fee, renationalizing sectors of energy, train and water services, protecting NHS from privatization, reducing patient wait time, keeping drug costs affordable (cost of medicine in UK on average is 250 times less than USA), helping handicapped and eliminating child poverty.
In that sense Labour’s defeat defies common sense because these were bread and butter issues of common people. But Labour suffered its worst defeat in decades (1939), especially when Conservatives didn’t commit to specifics (on such issues) in their manifesto except Get Brexit Done. So, why did Labour lose and Conservatives win? Did nationalism triumph over individual’s sense of economic wellbeing? In a way, nationalism was used to scuttle opposition’s manifesto to get rid of the EU and open Britain for business to rest of the world. So in a way Johnson has returned as PM to sell UK as the next Singapore just like he “opened” London to the rest of the world. The pound has strengthened after three-year low, stocks are up and markets are optimistic. Trump is happy and wants to sign great business deal with Johnson as a reward for freeing UK from the shackles of the EU. Leaders of Russia, Germany and France have also shown willingness to work with UK. So has China.
So if doing business with UK outside the EU was such a win-win for all parties, why would it take Britain years and three prime ministers to get over with Brexit? Why Johnson yet again refused to give SNP a second referendum in his first speech outside 10 Downing Street by saying that I will keep the Union united. Getting second referendum is SNP’s mandate as it was part of party’s manifesto and Sturgeon, party leader and senior minister of Scotland, made her demand for second referendum clear before the election. Joshnson-Strugeon positions on Brexit are due to nationalist capitalism. Johnson wants UK out of the EU because he wants to make better deals for his people and country. But Strugeon wants a second referendum because she wants Scotland to have its say in their future with the EU in terms of business, human rights and legal protections. With Tory’s keeping their options open in the manifesto, it is most likely that role of judiciary, bureaucracy and media will be decimated to protect businesses.
Johnson will get his wish of walking out of the EU. But he will have to make a deal with the Union ultimately. America is going to lift tariffs on China amidst reports that some five million US jobs were at stake with the continuation of the policy in the long run. This is a sobering outcome for Trump’s nationalist capitalism under America first which Johnson is going to exercise in 2020 by renegotiating trade deal with the EU as independent country. The outcome of US-UK deal will determine the future of other UK deals with Russia and China. Experts have already warned that US-UK deal will be one sided. By refusing to publish the UK-EU exit economic fallout report before election, Tory government has lent credibility to independent reports that it will bring down the UK GDP by 6.5 %. Lowering of one per cent GDP growth in China means loss of one million jobs.
It explains Johnson refusing to look at the photo of 4-year old lying on the floor of hospital floor and avoiding journalists in milk shed. Because he knows that he will put NHS on the list, cost of healthcare and living will go up because with lowering of taxes privatization is a must to fill the earning gap. Labour was right in adopting re-nationalizing approach because due to decades of Tory austerity policy, cost of living has increased, wages has become stagnant and the country is not in a position to compete internationally. Labour should work with Tory government to protect its manifesto, human rights, judiciary and bureaucracy. On the international front, the exit of UK from the EU will be the end of NATO. UK and US will make their own alliance. The combined resolution of US lawmakers to stop Trump from withdrawing [US] from NATO will not yield desired results. Trump could lead America out of NATO to end spending of US taxpayers’ money on others. The EU member states will have to pay for their own defence. Reportedly, America has already spent $600 more than its share on NATO which should have been scrapped after the fall of former Soviet Union.
—The writer is senior political analyst based in Islamabad.
