Rashid A Mughal
UAE and Israel signed a “Peace Deal” last week which surprised many leaders, scholars, I.R analysts and common man alike. Though behind the door secret diplomacy was at work since last year or so, what surprised many was the announcement by President Trump from the White House rather than press releases from Abu Dhabi and Tel Aviv. “Our vision is one of peace, security and prosperity — in this region, and in the world,” Trump said in an August 13 statement announcing the agreement, the first of its kind in more than 25 years and calling it a historic and major breakthrough.
Looks like both the UAE and Israel wanted Trump to take credit for the deal, obviously to help him in the presidential election, only 70 days away. There are mixed reactions from some Arab countries and other countries in the region. Iran, Turkey, Malaysia have, for example, condemned the peace deal. Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan emphatically said that Pakistan will not recognise Israel and the mood of the public is also definitely against it. On 22nd August Saudi Arabia officially announced its reaction and policy on the issue which to many, sounds pragmatic and workable. They have linked the peace with Israel to the recognition of Palestinian state with Baitul Muqqaddas as its capital and vacation of all Arab territories lost by Egypt and Jordan in 1967 war.
After Egypt’s peace treaty with Israel in 1979, followed by Jordan’s in 1994, this makes the UAE only the third Arab country to normalise relations with Israel. It is the first of the six Arab Gulf states to do so. Oman. Bahrain and possibly Morocco are widely expected to follow. Discreet contacts between the UAE and Israel had been under way for years but still, the details and timing of this normalisation deal were kept secret right up to the last minute.
There were no consultations between the UAE Foreign Ministry in Abu Dhabi and its Arab neighbours. Almost everyone was taken by surprise, most of all the Palestinians, who called it “a stab in the back” since they have yet to come close to getting a state of their own or ending Israeli occupation. “For the Palestinians, there is zero upside here,” comments Emile Hokayem from the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies. For the UAE’s de facto ruler Crown Prince Sheikh Mohammed Bin Zayed (known as MBZ), this deal is something of a gamble but one with the odds heavily in his favour. The risk is it could make the UAE leadership highly unpopular in the wider Arab world where some social media postings have been calling it “a sell-out”. Were the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to renege on his promise to temporarily shelve annexation of parts of the West Bank then that would be extremely embarrassing for the UAE and possibly see the whole deal unravel.
Mocking old predictions that Israel would become increasingly isolated and face a diplomatic “tsunami” for failing to resolve the Palestinian conflict, Netanyahu has instead touted economic peace and what he calls TTP — terrorism, technology and peace. Other countries, including Arab ones, he has argued, see Israel as an ally in fighting Islamist terrorism, a source of technological innovation and not as the obstacle to peace of old. More broadly, Israel’s agreement with the United Arab Emirates reflects the new alliances in the Middle East between countries that feel threatened by Iran. The Palestinian cause has been sidelined, leaving the Palestinians feeling isolated and, with the suspension of annexation as justification, used as pawns.
That comes as an additional blow to the Palestinians, who rejected the Trump Administration’s plan for resolving the Middle East conflict as hopelessly biased toward Israel and subsequently curbed their relations with the administration. Addressing the Iranian reservations, the United Arab Emirates’ Foreign Minister stated that agreement to normalise ties with Israel is a “sovereign decision” that was not directed at Iran. On the other hand, speaking after the announcement, Iranian President Rouhani said the “UAE had made a huge mistake in reaching an agreement to normalise ties with Israel and called it a betrayal by the Gulf State”. It is, however, noteworthy that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has clearly stated the annexation plans are only on “temporary hold” at the request of the US. The US-sponsored deal has been seen as firming up opposition to regional power, Iran, which Gulf States, Israel and Washington view as the main threat in the conflict-raven Middle East. The Secretary General of the six-member Gulf Cooperation Council condemned “threats” by Rouhani and other Iranian officials towards the UAE over the accord. Israel signed peace agreements with Egypt in 1979 and Jordan in 1994. But the UAE, along with most other Arab nations, has had no formal diplomatic or economic relations with it. Oman maintains friendly ties with the US and Iran and has previously been a go-between for the two feuding countries. Government sources in Kuwait said its position towards Israel is unchanged, and it will be the last country to normalise relations, local newspaper Al-Qabas reported.
The Trump Administration, almost at the same time the peace deal was announced, suffered humiliation as the UN Security Council voted to rebuff a US proposal to extend an arms embargo on Iran that is set to expire in two months. A key reason for the opposition was Trump’s previous actions regarding Iran, not least his unilateral move to pull out of the 2015 nuclear deal and re-impose economic sanctions on the country. Under the agreement, the UAE and Israel will cooperate in fields including education, health-care, energy, trade and security. The countries will exchange ambassadors, establish embassies, and open direct flights, allowing pilgrims from the entire Muslim world to visit holy sites in Israel.
In a joint statement, Trump, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Crown Prince of the Emirate of Abu Dhabi Mohammed Bin Zayed say they are confident similar breakthroughs between Middle East nations are possible and will work to achieve that goal. “Opening direct ties between two of the Middle East’s most dynamic societies and advanced economies will transform the region by spurring economic growth, enhancing technological innovation and forging closer people-to-people relations,” leaders say. Though it is pre-mature to say whether deal would usher in establishing a Palestinian State, as there are no pre-conditions set by UAE or linked it with creation of Palestinian State, like Saudi Arabian stand. Had that been done, it would have put extra pressure on Israel to work towards creation of Palestinian State which is long overdue.
— The writer is former DG (Emigration) and consultant ILO, IOM.
