USA-Iran-Washington-Tel Aviv–Tehran: Is Israel using the physical strength to continue waging the war against all. How long? PM Netanyahu and the lobby of pro-Israel in USA have been pressurising every President from the last four decades to attack Iran. Except President Obama who negotiated an agreement with Iranians and achieved the results not only of nuclear proliferation stoppage but also a bright future among US Iran relations. President Trump in its first term, an impulsive leader, scraped that agreement paving the way for confrontation between Iran and USA. Now it is a matter of record that the confrontation increased after the scrapping of this agreement.
Iran, after scrapping up, intensified the research in the Uranium enrichment. This forced Iran to increase influence in the regional countries, under sanctions, extreme pressure is tolerated by the people of Iran. The role of proxies of Iran is calculated strategic manoeuvre and part of greater strategic design and increased the political and strategic temperature. Iranian also stood by the regime having seen the destruction and killing in Iraq, Syria and Libya, the fight thus is existential. Even those countries who agreed to cooperate with US and the West were also destroyed. Overall, the Muslim countries suffered heavily between the presidency of Bush Senior to Trump. Almost 20 million Muslims died in these countries.
The ultimate strategic design of the Western power is the establishment of greater Israel, a country controlling not only all gas and oil reserves, also position itself so strategically that it becomes the Fulcrum between the West and the East. In spite of the reverses which have been faced by USA in its bases in Gulf, with the prolongation of the war apparently the plan of greater Israel is still on board. The plan of greater Israel, envisaged white empire in the Arab lands. Although after Iran-US and Israel war it got dented, President Trump is forcing all Muslim Gulf and regional countries to join Abraham Accord. When sea recedes, it exposes garbage and dumps same is mantra of Trump. Similarly, when world powers from the conquered or colonised lands, leave behind nothing but destruction. It is almost 4 months when the war was initiated by United States and Israel with the massive strikes on the leadership of Iran. The postulation, that Iran will collapse did not materialise. Iran has been preparing for such an eventuality in the past three decades and latest, Prime Minister Netanyahu has rejected Trump’s 15-point program s for Gaza.
On the Israeli front it is first time that Israel has faced massive counter attacks of a scale unprecedented, not only on its cities but most sensitive sites. In front of the barrages of missiles and drones falling in hundred and thousands Israeli Defence architecture, iron dome defence collapsed. Back home in America prolongation of the war has split the country, politically and militarily, into two factions. Majority of the Americans are expressing this war is not their and has been thrusted upon them by Israel. With midterm elections in November Trump administration is already feeling the heat. Yet they have put their head in such a scramble that they are not finding it the way out.
Further Trump, my assessment, concluded November election in all probability lost, he must win the war or such an agreement favouring him to ensure conducive before general election. Islamabad agreement did not receive American public support and it was considered that Trump administration has given in to get out of the war. Thus, the first statement given by Mr Trump after Islamabad agreement, that, we will implement and interpret this agreement our own way reflects it was the first signal that he plans to get out of this and conflict prolonged. Indeed, last three weeks witnessed the heaviest bombing, missile attacks of the war on Iran’s infrastructure, my assessment according to various strategic experts the firing on the Saudi and Katri ships was engineered by the Americans to a way that Irani force react and US get an excuse to attack . Within a few hours America resorted to massive bombing and missile attacks which is now going on in the 18 days.
Reportedly more than $27 billion gone down the drain and Pentagon asked for another 67 billion. Latest assessment of the experts is that the heat of war is now being felt in America as well. This is also compounded by the policy difference between US President and his supporters on one side and Vice President along with some military leadership on the other calling for restrain. Having been failed to pressurise Iran to come to table on the terms back door channels are open. Iran and Iranian people have a great resilience. They did not present any military target and therefore Trump administration hit the civilian infrastructure targets. Iran declared they are ready to respond to both Israel and USA if the war continues. Meanwhile there are reports that back-channel contact through the mediators (Pakistan) working to have some agreement on the framework of the 14-point Islamabad agreement.
As the world is reeling under economic pressures due to the closure of strait of HURMUZ on one side and heating up in the Babal Mander sea, the world oil prices are fluctuating contributing to the uncertainty in the stock market on one side and creating pressures on the countries which are major oil importers, including Pakistan. War and politics are complex games. There are always wheels within the wheels. Therefore, there is a possibility that within the framework of Islamabad agreement some headway could be made to avoid the global recession due to oil shortages on one side and the total economic pressure in the Gulf State which is shattering. Market fluctuation for oil and gas is destroying world logistics.
For Pakistan it is extremely important that some agreement is reached. Pakistan already has many internal problems; any prolongation of war is likely to create further economic hardship to the people, Pakistan on one side and looming external threat possibility. India is trying to screw Pakistan from three sides. Threat of conventional war with reorganised command structure and increased naval presence. Indian Defence hawkish analysts feel that effective measures are not taken, Gwadar and Urmara and Karachi ports will constitute a substantial threat in the Indian Ocean. With Chinese backup this threat will be multiplied for India.
Second, India is planning an 8.7 km tunnel to divert Chanab river water upstream to Bias River, over 2000,000s of MGB, stealing water from the Pakistan share dedicated in Indus Basin Treaty (IBT). This is going to be a major water aggression, in violation of the IBT and also violate Vienna convention. There is need it be tackled firstly diplomatically and if need be, kinetically. Third, India exploiting fault lines to create subversion and disturbances to pave way to destabilize Pakistan, it is augmented with international Financial Institutions like World Bank and IMS to cripple Pakistan under weight of taxes.
There’s no other route for Pakistan to cut short its expenses and make way to get out of IMS clutches. A number of international analysts have already pointed out that World Bank, IMF ensure that Pakistan does not get away. This is a lethal economic and strategic tool being used against Pakistan to keep it under the leash. There is no sovereignty without strong economy. Nevertheless, Pakistan, Saudia and Turkey tripartite defence agreement is a landmark development. It is of strategic importance. Its impact will be visible in near future. It is a force multiplier for all the three countries and this new defence architecture will change the shape of West Asia.
—The author is a decorated Brig Retd with over 32 years of combat experience, 31 years in corporate sector & author of two books on international relations and strategy.
