NEEDLESS to say, superpower’s chessboard of geopolitics has undermined the future of justice, peace and humanity, all this is an ultimate truth being endorsed by the ongoing Israeli war in Gaza. The Gaza war is going to directly affect the international system-cum-international order. Obviously today Gaza shows the difference between International Law and the so-called “Rules-Based International Order”—an order of the West, by the West and for the West. Israel’s offensive, one of the deadliest and most destructive military campaigns in recent history, has killed nearly 25,000 Palestinians.
Broadly speaking, in international relations, international order intrinsically entails –the dynamics of regularity, predictability and stability– in the ways that actors interact with one another. Nevertheless, international orders can vary along a number of dimensions (or fault lines). It goes without saying that geopolitically, geo-economically, morally and legally, the ongoing war in Gaza is affecting the fundamental dynamics of the international order.
According to the Lowy Institute,’ Whatever the outcome of the current conflict, it has become evident that the Palestinian issue cannot be ignored. Hamas’ brutal actions have revealed the limits of American authority, in the Middle East and beyond. The United States remains by far the strongest power in the world, but its relative influence is much diminished. The consistent failure (or unwillingness) to curb Israeli Prime minister Netanyahu excesses – worsening discrimination against Palestinians, toleration of settler violence and “reform” of Israel’s Supreme Court – testifies not to Washington’s restraint, but to its weakness’’.
More paradoxically, the liberal vision of a US-led “rules-based international order” has suffered another devastating setback. Rarely has the United States and the West in general, seemed more out of synchronisation with the rest of the world. Richard Haass, the distinguished global analyst, once wrote: “Consistency in foreign policy is a luxury policymakers cannot always afford.” But, equally, glaring national hypocrisy can come with a high price tag, in terms of lost credibility, damaged global prestige and diminished self-respect.
Precisely put, the US’ handling of this conflict has also added fuel to the fire on the ground. Although the US ultimately called Israel for a “humanitarian cease-fire” following pressure from the Arab world and the international community, it has already lost support internationally. The various diplomatic measures the US undertakes violate the morality of a major power and are closely related to its political system. Ostensibly, with the unjust western world’s policy towards the ongoing war in Gaza, the OIC has lost faith in perceived Western norms vis-à-vis the international law and institutions, human rights and democratic values. The Muslim world at large is justified in its conjecturing: ‘’the West itself is showing that brute force trumps all else.’ While the EU’s member states are divided on the ICJ’s upcoming verdict on the Gaza genocide, Brussels seems to stand with the ICJ’s stance.
Fairly speaking, the tragic events unfolding in Gaza should not come as a surprise. Neglecting the Israeli-Palestinian conflict has never been sustainable, especially as the plight of Palestinians worsens by the day. Israel’s ongoing occupation of Palestinian territories, aggravated by its illegal and pernicious expansion of settlements in the West Bank, contravenes United Nations Security Council resolutions, undermines the foundational principles of international law and violates established human-rights norms.
Moreover, the ongoing blockade of Gaza has segregated and traumatized the enclave’s 2.3 million inhabitants, depriving them of basic necessities. This historic miscalculation has stoked Palestinians’ anger, setting the stage for the current conflict. Washington’s pro-Israel stance undermines the legitimacy of the West’s broader reasons for supporting Ukraine in the eyes of many in the Global South.
And yet, the Gaza war impact on regional politics has been deeply profound: Jordan has a paramount concern as custodian of Jerusalem’s Muslim and Christian holy sites; if the fighting in Gaza produces an explosion in Jerusalem and the West Bank, it could jeopardise Amman’s effective role in administering these places and supercharge public fury. Jordan has frequently expressed disquiet regarding Israeli violations of the historical status quo at these sites, including Israel’s green light to Jews to pray on the plaza atop the al-Aqsa mosque-Temple Mount compound.
As for Lebanon, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah repeated warnings along these lines in a 3 November speech, while the party’s external sponsor Iran added ominous cautions to Israel not to escalate. Israel and the U.S., for their part, sent strongly worded messages back, and the U.S. moved substantial naval assets to the eastern Mediterranean Sea to deter Hezbollah and, by extension, Iran.
To keep a lid on escalation, Washington also reportedly worked quietly to dissuade Israel from taking punitive action against Hezbollah for attacks emanating from Palestinian militants based in Lebanon. Nonetheless, Egypt and Syria have also been severely affected by the war. The Gaza war has also shown its impact on the politics of the Red Sea and the Persian Gulf. And most importantly, the western-backed GCC states now adopt a cautious attitude vis-a -vis the ME politics.
Apparently, Iran s regional interests are being protected by the 3H- dimension of non-state actors that includes Hamas, Hezbollah and Houthis. Attacks by Iranian-backed groups in the Middle East won’t stop until Israel’s war on Hamas in Gaza ends, Tehran’s top diplomat warned on Jan 17 as tension across the region threaten to spiral into wider conflict. “If the genocide in Gaza stops, then it will lead to the end of other crises and attacks in the region,” Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian told CNN’s Fareed Zakaria.
And above all, these changing trends in international order are glaringly marked by Russia’s increasingly militarized economy and China’s stalling growth accompanied by the growing economic weight of the Global South. All the while because of the mounting pressure –on Israel over the huge civilian death toll –espoused by the for pro-Palestinian protests in cities like Washington DC, London, Berlin, Paris, Amman and Cairo, almost all in support of the Gazans- many Israelis and the Americans are compelled to realise the follies –their policy makers in Washington and Tel Aviv–have committed in terms of the war In Gaza. True, a parallel global order is emerging amid the Western imposed word order.
—The writer, an independent ‘IR’ researcher-cum-international law analyst based in Pakistan, is member of European Consortium for Political Research Standing Group on IR, Critical Peace & Conflict Studies, also a member of Washington Foreign Law Society and European Society of International Law. He deals with the strategic and nuclear issues.
Email: [email protected]
views expressed are writer’s own.
