The ball is now in Taliban’s court
IN a little over a week, the first of 2,500 U.S. troops remaining in Afghanistan will begin to fly out of the country, leaving behind 20 years of war and a flurry of questions about what the country will look like going forward.
When the Taliban ruled, Afghanistan was a country that was not recognized internationally except by only three, the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan which again was also its only trading partner.
It was a country that was disconnected from most of the world, there was no single girl being enrolled in school. The Afghanistan of today is a completely different Afghanistan.
From being a full member of the World Trade Organization to a country that is more than 85 percent connected to mobile phones, to a country 40 percent of school enrollments are comprised of girls.
There is a shift in mindset.
The number of women active all around the country, whether they are in government positions, or they are deputy governors, or teachers, or in sports, or in music, or in politics, or in the legislative body, is unprecedented in Afghan history.
The human capital that has been developed in the past 20 years is unprecedented in Afghan history.
A very critical shift happened in Afghanistan. In 2014, for the first time, one elected government transferred power to another elected government. Afghans have embraced democracy.
The Afghan government is expected to continue to do what it has been doing over many years, but particularly over the past five years, which is to continue making space for women to be incorporated in decision-making at all different levels, whether it is in government, or in legislative bodies, or facilitating the environment for them to be an active part of the private sector, as well as all other arenas and walks of life.
This is directly tied to what happens, security wise, because the deterioration of security impacts women in more ways than the rest of the system.
The presence of the U.S. military had a great psychological impact in general that provided a sense of security to Afghan citizens, but especially to women.
Finally, what would impact women’s rights is what happens with security. Should the security situation deteriorate, women would get the biggest blow, there is no doubt about that.
Women would suffer in many more ways. They become more restricted, their mobility is limited, and their access to education, to employment, to public spaces become a lot more restricted and limited. The scheduled departure, meant to be completed by Sept.
11, creates conditions conducive for the Taliban to finally stop its violence because the justification for their war—the presence of foreign troops on the ground—would have hopefully disappeared by then and the ball would finally be in the Taliban’s court.
The Afghan National Defence and Security Forces have been conducting over 96 percent of all the operations currently, and increasingly, they’re doing more and more.
So they have stood up to the challenge, they have been at the forefront of this fight.
And while the presence of the U.S. and international troops and support they have received was absolutely critical, the vacuum that their absence would create, would hopefully be filled with additional support for the security forces.
Afghan government needs to re-enforce the security forces by providing them additional support for the capacity and capabilities so that the Afghan military can stand up to the test. And they have taken that challenge on now for several years.
So this is the biggest test for the Taliban and for their allies or supporters to really come to the table and try to find a settlement that would end the conflict, and finally the Afghan people would start to live in the peace and security that they deserve.
Taliban violence against Afghans had never stopped. And in fact, it’s increased. There were many parts of Doha agreement that were violated by the Taliban, including attacking the center of the city. So the agreement has not changed drastically for the Afghans.
The only thing that they did respecting that agreement was not attacking the American and allied forces since the signing. But in terms of the Afghan forces and civilians, there has been an uptick throughout.
It would be devastating to see even further escalation of violence as the spring comes, but if that is the case, then it is once again a clear indication that the Taliban had no intention for peace or peaceful progress.
Unfortunately, the peace talks that were paving the way for a political settlement never fully took off.
They spend five months discussing the procedures and then after that, for one reason or another the talks were derailed.
The commitment for peace is there, because it is the desire of the people at large and the Afghan government has demonstrated its own commitment.
President Ashraf Ghani has been very committed to pursuing a political settlement for a durable and real peace. And he has been continuously working with options and coming up with them.
Now, once the talks start, whatever settlement is reached that would lead to a durable peace in Afghanistan that would be acceptable to the people of Afghanistan.
Afghanistan needs continuous support for its security forces, because they continue to be at the forefront of the fight against terrorism and extremism.
Afghanistan needs civilian support or assistance with the kind of programming that would help Afghanistan toward self-sufficiency.
In the medium term, what is very important is to support Afghanistan’s budget, especially in the face of the economic crisis that was exacerbated by the COVID situation.
But in the medium term, what is very important is to support the kind of programming that would lead to a strong economic self-sufficiency and economic reliance.
That would include investment in infrastructure, investment in promoting trade, connectivity, investing in Afghanistan’s minerals and natural resources, and its potential for reviving the trade and transit hub in the region.
— The writer is veteran journalist and a former editor based in Islamabad.
