THE fate of the next round of peace talks between the United States and Iran, which was expected to be held in Islamabad, was uncertain due to serious violations of the ceasefire, raising apprehensions about resumption of full-scale war. The US military unleashed a new wave of strikes against Iran on Tuesday and revoked a licence allowing the country to sell oil after three tankers were hit by projectiles in the Strait of Hormuz, putting pressure on an already fragile ceasefire. After a day in which huge crowds mourned Iran’s assassinated supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in the holy city of Qom, US Central Command (Centcom) said it hit over 80 targets in a series of strikes intended to impose what it called “heavy costs”. The military command said it struck more than 60 small boats of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in an effort to degrade Iran’s ability to attack commercial shipping. Iranian media also reported explosions early on Wednesday local time on Iran’s main oil hub of Kharg Island, on Qeshm Island and in the southern port cities of Sirik and Bandar Abbas. The intensity and scale of the strikes can be gauged by the fact that these targeted Iranian air defence systems, coastal surveillance systems, surface-to-air missiles, anti-ship cruise missiles and drone launch sites.
It is all about the management of the strategically located Strait of Hormuz, which Tehran wants to control at all costs and the United States demands toll free movement of commercial vessels. This is also confirmed by the statements emanating from Tehran and on Wednesday as well, in a statement Iran’s top joint military command, Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters said that that Iranian armed forces would deliver a “crushing response” to the “blatant act of aggression” and warned that Tehran would not allow US interference in the management of the Strait of Hormuz. Qatar blamed Iran for attacking the vessels, including the huge Qatari liquefied natural gas tanker, the Al Rekayyat. A Saudi-flagged crude oil tanker, believed to be the supertanker Wedyan, was also damaged off Oman. Qatar’s Foreign Ministry said it had summoned Iran’s Deputy Ambassador and handed him a protest note following the attack on the tanker. Iran’s foreign ministry said Qatar’s accusations were perplexing and that Tehran was diligently fulfilling its commitments but asserted that commercial vessels faced risks for using routes not coordinated with Iran. Tehran aims to install a permanent system to collect fees in what would amount to a huge shift of the balance of power in a region where Washington has long acted as guarantor of security. Apart from serious nature of the American strikes that prompted Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian to leave Iraq (where he had gone to attend the funeral ceremonies of the assassinated Supreme Leader Khamanei) for home, the decision of the United States to revoke licence for sale of Iranian oil is a major blow to the Islamabad Accord. Under the interim US-Iran agreement, the US Treasury issued a 22 June general licence to allow the sale of crude oil and petrochemical and petroleum products of Iranian origin through 21 August. The cancellation move caused a three per cent hike in prices of oil that were steadily coming down these days. We have been warning in these columns time and again that repeated violations of the ceasefire are putting strains on the peace process and the situation can go beyond control any time due to miscalculations. The two sides have already suffered in terms of military and economic losses and a return to hostilities could lead to unimaginable consequences. The Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) offered a honourable exit from a complex situation and the opportunity must not be lost for the sake of false posturing.
